2022 · Week 16

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

23·37

Panthers

Carolina

QB Sam Darnold

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 20°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

DET -2.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+0.3est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.073EPA / play-0.036
  • 45.7%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.173EPA / dropback-0.062
  • -0.070EPA / rush-0.005
  • 9.5%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -1.27CPOE-4.71
  • 41.5%Third-down rate31.6%
  • 64.6%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 2.36Points / drive1.70
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 9–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. CAR are 7-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4DET @ CAR26–32CAR
2023 · W5CAR @ DET24–42DET
2020 · W11DET @ CAR0–20CAR
2018 · W11CAR @ DET19–20DET
2017 · W5CAR @ DET27–24CAR
2014 · W2DET @ CAR7–24CAR
2011 · W11CAR @ DET35–49DET
2008 · W11DET @ CAR22–31CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–CAR
CARQ1 15:00583Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 11:57860Touchdown7–7
CARQ1 8:38430Punt7–7
DETQ1 6:071480Turnover7–7
CARQ2 14:17891Touchdown7–14
DETQ2 9:3534Punt7–14
CARQ2 8:341287Touchdown7–21
DETQ2 2:0839Punt7–21
CARQ2 0:59873Field goal7–24
DETQ3 15:003-3Punt7–24
CARQ3 12:46774Touchdown7–31
DETQ3 9:123-9Punt7–31
CARQ3 8:0533Punt7–31
DETQ3 6:21780Touchdown13–31
CARQ3 3:09932Field goal13–34
DETQ4 13:13645Turnover on downs13–34
CARQ4 10:28661Punt13–34
DETQ4 5:36983Touchdown20–34
CARQ4 3:46537Field goal20–37
DETQ4 1:56932Field goal23–37
CARQ4 0:3600End of half23–37

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff25/4235530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jared Goff3155.00
D'Andre Swift4123.00
Jamaal Williams7111.60
Kalif Raymond188.00
Amon-Ra St. Brown100.00
Justin Jackson1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Chark451080
Amon-Ra St. Brown713760
Kalif Raymond11560
Josh Reynolds24310
James Mitchell22310
Shane Zylstra56263
D'Andre Swift15130
Brock Wright11110
Jamaal Williams2230
Justin Jackson0100
Jameson Williams0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold15/2225010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Onta Foreman211657.91
Chuba Hubbard1212510.40
Sam Darnold6193.21
DJ Moore188.00
Raheem Blackshear331.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore57831
Terrace Marshall Jr.23550
Laviska Shenault Jr.33530
Tommy Tremble22180
Shi Smith12170
Ian Thomas13120
Raheem Blackshear11120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.0%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.37
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.34