Closing spread
DET -2.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.073EPA / play-0.036
- 45.7%Success rate40.8%
- +0.173EPA / dropback-0.062
- -0.070EPA / rush-0.005
- 9.5%Explosive rate9.4%
- -1.27CPOE-4.71
- 41.5%Third-down rate31.6%
- 64.6%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 2.36Points / drive1.70
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 8–4 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. CAR are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 25/42 | 355 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Chark | 4 | 5 | 108 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 7 | 13 | 76 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 1 | 56 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| James Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Shane Zylstra | 5 | 6 | 26 | 3 |
| D'Andre Swift | 1 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 15/22 | 250 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 21 | 165 | 7.9 | 1 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 12 | 125 | 10.4 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 1 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 5 | 7 | 83 | 1 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 2 | 3 | 55 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Shi Smith | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.37
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.34