Closing spread
CAR -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.006EPA / play-0.007
- 41.8%Success rate44.6%
- +0.074EPA / dropback+0.059
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.104
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.5%
- -4.76CPOE-1.27
- 38.3%Third-down rate41.1%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.79Points / drive1.63
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 8–4 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. CAR are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 27/48 | 291 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joique Bell | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 6 | 13 | 83 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 6 | 11 | 61 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 5 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ross | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Joseph Fauria | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Corey Fuller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 22/34 | 281 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 15 | 37 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Cam Newton | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 6 | 8 | 72 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 5 | 7 | 54 | 1 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 4 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 2 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Brenton Bersin | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.42
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.99