2014 · Week 2

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

7·24

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

CAR -1

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.006EPA / play-0.007
  • 41.8%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.074EPA / dropback+0.059
  • -0.159EPA / rush-0.104
  • 8.1%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -4.76CPOE-1.27
  • 38.3%Third-down rate41.1%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.63
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 9–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. CAR are 7-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4DET @ CAR26–32CAR
2023 · W5CAR @ DET24–42DET
2022 · W16DET @ CAR23–37CAR
2020 · W11DET @ CAR0–20CAR
2018 · W11CAR @ DET19–20DET
2017 · W5CAR @ DET27–24CAR
2011 · W11CAR @ DET35–49DET
2008 · W11DET @ CAR22–31CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–CAR
DETQ1 15:001059Missed field goal0–0
CARQ1 9:58416Punt0–0
DETQ1 7:101266Turnover0–0
CARQ1 1:433-1Punt0–0
DETQ1 0:3638Punt0–0
CARQ2 14:021497Field goal0–3
DETQ2 7:58849Missed field goal0–3
CARQ2 3:17636Field goal0–6
DETQ2 1:11515Punt0–6
CARQ2 0:1325End of half0–6
CARQ3 15:003-1Punt0–6
DETQ3 13:29656Touchdown0–6
DETQ3 10:1516Touchdown6–6
DETQ3 9:3411Touchdown7–6
DETQ3 9:2800Touchdown7–6
CARQ3 9:28521Punt7–6
DETQ3 6:1730Punt7–6
CARQ3 5:51867Touchdown7–13
DETQ3 2:30616Punt7–13
CARQ4 13:313-1Punt7–13
DETQ4 12:3210Turnover7–13
CARQ4 12:191067Touchdown7–21
DETQ4 7:2600Field goal7–21
CARQ4 7:1643Field goal7–24
DETQ4 4:455-2Punt7–24
CARQ4 3:2935Punt7–24
DETQ4 3:031149Turnover on downs7–24
CARQ4 0:0900End of half7–24

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford27/4829111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joique Bell10363.60
Reggie Bush6264.30
Matthew Stafford188.00
Theo Riddick100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson613830
Joique Bell611610
Golden Tate58570
Eric Ebron35380
Jeremy Ross23230
Joseph Fauria11200
Reggie Bush2360
Brandon Pettigrew0100
Corey Fuller0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton22/3428110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart15372.51
Cam Newton4194.80
Corey Brown11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen68720
Jason Avant57541
Jerricho Cotchery44460
Kelvin Benjamin28460
Jonathan Stewart11220
Brenton Bersin1180
Ed Dickson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.1%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.42
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.99