2020 · Week 11

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

0·20

Panthers

Carolina

QB Phillip Walker

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

DET -3

Total

47

Model margin

+0.2est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.014EPA / play+0.019
  • 45.5%Success rate45.8%
  • +0.103EPA / dropback+0.075
  • -0.156EPA / rush-0.082
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -1.27CPOE+2.88
  • 41.6%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 63.0%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
  • 2.14Points / drive2.21
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 9–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. CAR are 7-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4DET @ CAR26–32CAR
2023 · W5CAR @ DET24–42DET
2022 · W16DET @ CAR23–37CAR
2018 · W11CAR @ DET19–20DET
2017 · W5CAR @ DET27–24CAR
2014 · W2DET @ CAR7–24CAR
2011 · W11CAR @ DET35–49DET
2008 · W11DET @ CAR22–31CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–CAR
CARQ1 15:00837Punt0–0
DETQ1 10:28614Punt0–0
CARQ1 8:241095Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 2:2135Turnover0–7
CARQ1 0:56518Turnover0–7
DETQ2 13:43532Punt0–7
CARQ2 11:2033Punt0–7
DETQ2 9:42519Punt0–7
CARQ2 6:59514Punt0–7
DETQ2 4:16520Punt0–7
CARQ2 1:53837Punt0–7
DETQ2 0:0500End of half0–7
DETQ3 15:0035Punt0–7
CARQ3 14:07666Touchdown0–14
DETQ3 10:58723Punt0–14
CARQ3 7:32838Field goal0–17
DETQ3 1:59737Missed field goal0–17
CARQ4 14:08857Turnover0–17
DETQ4 9:1082Turnover on downs0–17
CARQ4 6:1748Field goal0–20
DETQ4 4:57629Turnover on downs0–20
CARQ4 2:5135End of half0–20

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford18/3317800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson7182.60
Kerryon Johnson6172.80
Matthew Stafford451.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Hockenson47680
Marvin Jones46510
Kerryon Johnson25210
Marvin Hall33160
Jamal Agnew36100
Quintez Cephus1290
Jesse James1230
Adrian Peterson0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
PJ Walker24/3425812
DJ Moore0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Davis19643.41
Rodney Smith8293.60
DJ Moore12121.00
Curtis Samuel144.00
PJ Walker5-2-0.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore7111270
Curtis Samuel810701
Robbie Chosen79460
Mike Davis22150
Chris Manhertz0100
PJ Walker0100
Alex Armah0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

7.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.6%

Expected total

47.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.03
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.55
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.19