Closing spread
DET -3
Total
47
Model margin
+0.2est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play+0.019
- 45.5%Success rate45.8%
- +0.103EPA / dropback+0.075
- -0.156EPA / rush-0.082
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.9%
- -1.27CPOE+2.88
- 41.6%Third-down rate39.5%
- 63.0%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 2.14Points / drive2.21
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 8–4 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. CAR are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 18/33 | 178 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 4 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 3 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Quintez Cephus | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Davis | 19 | 64 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Rodney Smith | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| PJ Walker | 5 | -2 | -0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 7 | 11 | 127 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 8 | 10 | 70 | 1 |
| Robbie Chosen | 7 | 9 | 46 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| PJ Walker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.6%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.03
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.55
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.19