Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-2.7est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Lionsedge mapPanthers
- -0.027EPA / play+0.130
- 45.5%Success rate47.1%
- +0.012EPA / dropback+0.242
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.106
- 10.4%Explosive rate11.8%
- -2.91CPOE+4.17
- 38.5%Third-down rate44.4%
- 80.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 2.20Points / drive2.90
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 8–4 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. CAR are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.96
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.74