2026 · Week 4

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

26·32

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

DET -4.5

Total

52.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.144EPA / play+0.019
  • 49.9%Success rate41.9%
  • +0.309EPA / dropback+0.072
  • -0.108EPA / rush-0.084
  • 10.3%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +1.18CPOE-0.58
  • 39.7%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 70.4%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
  • 2.92Points / drive2.15
  • 0.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 9–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. CAR are 7-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W5CAR @ DET24–42DET
2022 · W16DET @ CAR23–37CAR
2020 · W11DET @ CAR0–20CAR
2018 · W11CAR @ DET19–20DET
2017 · W5CAR @ DET27–24CAR
2014 · W2DET @ CAR7–24CAR
2011 · W11CAR @ DET35–49DET
2008 · W11DET @ CAR22–31CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–CAR
DETQ1 15:00634Field goal3–0
CARQ1 12:05714Punt3–0
DETQ1 7:4149Punt3–0
CARQ1 5:50872Touchdown3–7
DETQ1 1:50933Field goal6–7
CARQ2 12:37975Touchdown6–13
DETQ2 8:081263Touchdown13–13
CARQ2 2:14841Field goal13–16
DETQ2 0:28349Field goal16–16
CARQ3 15:001264Touchdown16–22
DETQ3 9:33772Field goal19–22
CARQ3 6:21785Touchdown19–29
DETQ3 2:47737Punt19–29
CARQ4 14:431272Field goal19–32
DETQ4 8:59974Turnover on downs19–32
CARQ4 7:0433Punt19–32
DETQ4 6:071072Touchdown26–32
CARQ4 3:38723Punt26–32
DETQ4 2:0649Turnover on downs26–32
CARQ4 1:2200End of half26–32

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff32/5241210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahmyr Gibbs15463.11

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jameson Williams681020
Isaac TeSlaa48950
Sam LaPorta813841
Amon-Ra St. Brown811750
Jahmyr Gibbs47310
Sione Vaki12170
Brock Wright1280

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young29/4132920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard201226.12
Bryce Young331.00
AJ Dillon520.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tetairoa McMillan14161922
John Metchie III35370
Darren Waller36360
Brycen Tremayne23320
Tommy Tremble44120
Mitchell Evans1180
Chuba Hubbard1270
AJ Dillon1150
Ja'Seem Reed0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.37%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.9%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.81
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.41