2018 · Week 11

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

19·20

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

CAR -4

Total

48

Model margin

+1.6est.

DET perspective

Push chance

2.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapLions
  • +0.067EPA / play-0.022
  • 48.0%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.086EPA / dropback+0.027
  • +0.033EPA / rush-0.106
  • 10.7%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +2.75CPOE-2.79
  • 42.1%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 68.2%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 2.20Points / drive1.75
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 9–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. DET are 6-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4DET @ CAR26–32CAR
2023 · W5CAR @ DET24–42DET
2022 · W16DET @ CAR23–37CAR
2020 · W11DET @ CAR0–20CAR
2017 · W5CAR @ DET27–24CAR
2014 · W2DET @ CAR7–24CAR
2011 · W11CAR @ DET35–49DET
2008 · W11DET @ CAR22–31CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–DET
CARQ1 15:001090Touchdown7–0
DETQ1 9:271272Touchdown7–7
CARQ1 2:3630Punt7–7
DETQ1 0:25513Punt7–7
CARQ2 12:46520Punt7–7
DETQ2 9:443-4Punt7–7
CARQ2 7:45717Punt7–7
DETQ2 4:13948Field goal7–10
CARQ2 0:3710Turnover7–10
DETQ2 0:2940Punt7–10
DETQ3 15:00432Punt7–10
CARQ3 12:55678Missed field goal7–10
DETQ3 9:111062Field goal7–13
CARQ3 3:47613Punt7–13
DETQ3 0:32412Punt7–13
CARQ4 13:561092Touchdown13–13
DETQ4 9:23975Touchdown13–20
CARQ4 5:1332Punt13–20
DETQ4 4:2832Punt13–20
CARQ4 2:44675Touchdown19–20
DETQ4 1:0700End of half19–20

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton25/3735731
Taylor Heinicke0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey13534.10
Cam Newton221.00
Cameron Artis-Payne111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore781571
Christian McCaffrey68570
Curtis Samuel57551
Jarius Wright33400
Devin Funchess28390
Greg Olsen2391

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford23/3722010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kerryon Johnson15875.81
Matthew Stafford362.00
LeGarrette Blount710.10
Theo Riddick100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Golladay8151131
Bruce Ellington69520
Theo Riddick56300
Levine Toilolo11130
Kerryon Johnson22100
T.J. Jones1120
Luke Willson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -44.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.12
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.62