Closing spread
CAR -4
Total
48
Model margin
+1.6est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.067EPA / play-0.022
- 48.0%Success rate41.5%
- +0.086EPA / dropback+0.027
- +0.033EPA / rush-0.106
- 10.7%Explosive rate7.7%
- +2.75CPOE-2.79
- 42.1%Third-down rate36.1%
- 68.2%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 2.20Points / drive1.75
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 8–4 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. DET are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 25/37 | 357 | 3 | 1 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Cameron Artis-Payne | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 7 | 8 | 157 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 6 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 5 | 7 | 55 | 1 |
| Jarius Wright | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 2 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 23/37 | 220 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerryon Johnson | 15 | 87 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 7 | 1 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Golladay | 8 | 15 | 113 | 1 |
| Bruce Ellington | 6 | 9 | 52 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 5 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| T.J. Jones | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.12
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.62