Closing spread
DET -7
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play+0.036
- 44.8%Success rate44.2%
- +0.093EPA / dropback+0.101
- +0.115EPA / rush-0.104
- 12.3%Explosive rate9.6%
- -0.04CPOE+1.23
- 38.7%Third-down rate35.2%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 2.08Points / drive1.98
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 8–4 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. DET are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 22/38 | 280 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 10 | 73 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 7 | 37 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 6 | 6 | 87 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 3 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 5 | 10 | 41 | 1 |
| Legedu Naanee | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 3 | 9 | 23 | 0 |
| Richie Brockel | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 28/36 | 335 | 5 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 16 | 140 | 8.8 | 2 |
| Maurice Morris | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Stefan Logan | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 5 | 8 | 89 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 7 | 7 | 63 | 1 |
| Kevin Smith | 4 | 4 | 61 | 1 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 4 | 5 | 37 | 1 |
| Rashied Davis | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 2 | 3 | 24 | 1 |
| Titus Young | 2 | 3 | 14 | 1 |
| Will Heller | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
4.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.93