2011 · Week 11

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

35·49

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -7

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.9est.

DET perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapLions
  • +0.102EPA / play+0.036
  • 44.8%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback+0.101
  • +0.115EPA / rush-0.104
  • 12.3%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -0.04CPOE+1.23
  • 38.7%Third-down rate35.2%
  • 64.4%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 2.08Points / drive1.98
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 9–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. DET are 6-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4DET @ CAR26–32CAR
2023 · W5CAR @ DET24–42DET
2022 · W16DET @ CAR23–37CAR
2020 · W11DET @ CAR0–20CAR
2018 · W11CAR @ DET19–20DET
2017 · W5CAR @ DET27–24CAR
2014 · W2DET @ CAR7–24CAR
2008 · W11DET @ CAR22–31CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–DET
DETQ1 15:0030Turnover0–0
CARQ1 14:3532Turnover0–0
DETQ1 13:461039Turnover0–0
CARQ1 8:35873Field goal3–0
DETQ1 3:5539Turnover3–0
CARQ1 2:29544Touchdown10–0
DETQ1 0:35380Touchdown16–7
CARQ2 14:0400Touchdown17–7
DETQ2 13:5035Punt17–7
CARQ2 11:25543Touchdown24–7
DETQ2 9:321280Touchdown24–14
CARQ2 2:571267Field goal27–14
CARQ3 15:00618Punt27–14
DETQ3 11:51330Touchdown27–21
CARQ3 10:2841Punt27–21
DETQ3 9:15671Touchdown27–28
CARQ3 5:57739Turnover27–28
DETQ3 2:37621Punt27–28
CARQ4 14:4954Punt27–28
DETQ4 12:36869Touchdown27–35
CARQ4 8:02674Touchdown35–35
DETQ4 4:59770Touchdown35–42
CARQ4 2:3210Turnover35–42
DETQ4 2:17323Touchdown35–49
CARQ4 2:00644Turnover35–49
DETQ4 0:4700End of half35–49

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton22/3828014

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams10737.30
Cam Newton7375.32
Jonathan Stewart8222.80
Steve Smith155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jonathan Stewart66870
Brandon LaFell35510
Steve Smith510411
Legedu Naanee35410
DeAngelo Williams11320
Greg Olsen39230
Richie Brockel1150

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford28/3633552

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Smith161408.82
Maurice Morris7294.10
Matthew Stafford420.50
Keiland Williams100.00
Stefan Logan1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson58890
Nate Burleson77631
Kevin Smith44611
Brandon Pettigrew45371
Rashied Davis22270
Tony Scheffler23241
Titus Young23141
Will Heller13120
Maurice Morris1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

4.78%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.9%

Expected total

47.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.44
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.93