Closing spread
DET -2
Total
42
Model margin
+2.3est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play-0.046
- 41.3%Success rate40.8%
- +0.040EPA / dropback+0.074
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.278
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.7%
- -2.85CPOE+0.41
- 43.2%Third-down rate38.4%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 1.87Points / drive1.78
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 8–4 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. DET are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 26/33 | 355 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 18 | 21 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Dickson | 5 | 5 | 175 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 4 | 6 | 58 | 1 |
| Devin Funchess | 7 | 8 | 53 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 5 | 7 | 31 | 1 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 23/35 | 229 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameer Abdullah | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Theo Riddick | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 6 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 5 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Jared Abbrederis | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 2 | 2 | 24 | 2 |
| T.J. Jones | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.52
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.26