2017 · Week 5

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

27·24

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -2

Total

42

Model margin

+2.3est.

DET perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapLions
  • -0.018EPA / play-0.046
  • 41.3%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.040EPA / dropback+0.074
  • -0.096EPA / rush-0.278
  • 8.9%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -2.85CPOE+0.41
  • 43.2%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 55.8%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.78
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 9–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. DET are 6-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4DET @ CAR26–32CAR
2023 · W5CAR @ DET24–42DET
2022 · W16DET @ CAR23–37CAR
2020 · W11DET @ CAR0–20CAR
2018 · W11CAR @ DET19–20DET
2014 · W2DET @ CAR7–24CAR
2011 · W11CAR @ DET35–49DET
2008 · W11DET @ CAR22–31CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–DET
DETQ1 15:00833Field goal0–3
CARQ1 11:32643Punt0–3
DETQ1 7:473-2Punt0–3
CARQ1 6:52561Field goal3–3
DETQ1 3:511160Touchdown3–10
CARQ2 13:32575Touchdown10–10
DETQ2 11:04418Punt10–10
CARQ2 9:063-9Punt10–10
DETQ2 6:2737Punt10–10
DETQ2 5:0500Punt10–10
CARQ2 4:581173Touchdown17–10
DETQ2 0:483-7End of half17–10
CARQ3 15:00880Touchdown24–10
DETQ3 10:431-5Turnover24–10
CARQ3 10:353-3Field goal27–10
DETQ3 9:2632Punt27–10
CARQ3 7:3838Punt27–10
DETQ3 5:59625Turnover on downs27–10
CARQ3 3:1468Missed field goal27–10
DETQ4 14:085-11Punt27–10
CARQ4 12:10611Punt27–10
DETQ4 8:58869Touchdown27–17
CARQ4 5:4843Punt27–17
DETQ4 4:13653Touchdown27–24
CARQ4 3:22318End of half27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton26/3335530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart18211.20
Christian McCaffrey372.30
Cam Newton700.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ed Dickson551750
Kelvin Benjamin46581
Devin Funchess78531
Christian McCaffrey57311
Jonathan Stewart33230
Russell Shepard22150
Curtis Samuel0200

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford23/3522920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ameer Abdullah10313.10
Zach Zenner3113.71
Theo Riddick284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Jones68540
Golden Tate58480
Theo Riddick45450
Jared Abbrederis23370
Darren Fells22242
T.J. Jones24120
Eric Ebron1460
Ameer Abdullah1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +24.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.1%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.52
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.26