1999 · Week 7

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Elvis Grbac

35·8

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Stoney Case

PSINet Stadium · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

KC -1

Total

36

Model margin

-0.1est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapRavens
  • -0.027EPA / play-0.091
  • 38.7%Success rate36.5%
  • +0.046EPA / dropback-0.084
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.100
  • 8.2%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 39.1%Third-down rate28.4%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate40.6%
  • 1.01Points / drive1.00
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.7%
  • -0.134EPA / play allowed-0.151

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 10–5 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. BAL are 5-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4BAL @ KC20–37KC
2024 · W1BAL @ KC20–27KC
2023 · playoffsKC @ BAL17–10KC
2021 · W2KC @ BAL35–36BAL
2020 · W3KC @ BAL34–20KC
2019 · W3BAL @ KC28–33KC
2018 · W14BAL @ KC24–27KC
2015 · W15KC @ BAL34–14KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–BAL
BALQ1 15:0066Turnover0–0
KCQ1 12:533-6Punt0–0
BALQ1 11:33416Punt0–0
KCQ1 9:5531Punt0–0
BALQ1 7:3634Punt0–0
KCQ1 6:1235Punt0–0
BALQ1 4:0591Missed field goal0–0
KCQ1 1:161162Touchdown7–0
BALQ2 12:0139Punt7–0
KCQ2 10:0736Punt7–0
BALQ2 8:46421Punt7–0
KCQ2 6:2133Punt7–0
BALQ2 4:51729Punt7–0
KCQ2 1:4739Punt7–0
BALQ2 1:22626End of half7–0
KCQ3 15:00734Missed field goal7–0
BALQ3 10:484-1Punt7–0
KCQ3 9:2537Punt7–0
BALQ3 7:26434Opp touchdown14–0
KCQ3 5:1000Opp touchdown14–0
BALQ3 5:10928Turnover on downs14–0
KCQ3 1:10857Touchdown21–0
BALQ4 12:37412Opp touchdown28–0
KCQ4 10:3500Opp touchdown28–0
BALQ4 10:35626Punt28–0
KCQ4 7:3739Punt28–0
BALQ4 6:09621Touchdown28–8
KCQ4 4:05332Touchdown35–8
BALQ4 2:301045Turnover on downs35–8
KCQ4 0:0200End of half35–8

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Elvis Grbac9/1611220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bam Morris16704.41
Elvis Grbac273.50
Rashaan Shehee5-5-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Gonzalez44542
Kevin Lockett24310
Joe Horn11170
Lonnie Johnson1260
Derrick Alexander0300
Andre Rison0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Stoney Case15/3710303
Tony Banks8/146900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Errict Rhett19593.11
Stoney Case5387.60
Tony Banks263.00
Jermaine Lewis122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Armour613700
Aaron Pierce25350
Qadry Ismail310250
Chuck Evans44130
A.J. Ofodile22130
Errict Rhett2270
Greg DeLong2450
Jermaine Lewis2640
Brandon Stokley0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.8%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.06
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.59
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.09