Closing spread
KC -1
Total
36
Model margin
-0.1est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play-0.091
- 38.7%Success rate36.5%
- +0.046EPA / dropback-0.084
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.100
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.5%
- 39.1%Third-down rate28.4%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate40.6%
- 1.01Points / drive1.00
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.134EPA / play allowed-0.151
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 10–5 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. BAL are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 9/16 | 112 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Morris | 16 | 70 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Elvis Grbac | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Rashaan Shehee | 5 | -5 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 4 | 4 | 54 | 2 |
| Kevin Lockett | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Lonnie Johnson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Rison | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoney Case | 15/37 | 103 | 0 | 3 |
| Tony Banks | 8/14 | 69 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errict Rhett | 19 | 59 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Stoney Case | 5 | 38 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Armour | 6 | 13 | 70 | 0 |
| Aaron Pierce | 2 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 3 | 10 | 25 | 0 |
| Chuck Evans | 4 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| A.J. Ofodile | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Errict Rhett | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Greg DeLong | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 2 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.8%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.06
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.59
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.09