Closing spread
KC -4.5
Total
52
Model margin
-0.5est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.203EPA / play+0.135
- 48.1%Success rate47.0%
- +0.322EPA / dropback+0.247
- +0.088EPA / rush-0.094
- 12.0%Explosive rate8.2%
- +3.13CPOE+1.86
- 48.0%Third-down rate48.7%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 2.90Points / drive2.59
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 10–5 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. KC are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 22/43 | 267 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 16 | 103 | 6.4 | 3 |
| Gus Edwards | 7 | 53 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 8 | 46 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Boyle | 4 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 2 | 9 | 49 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 3 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Seth Roberts | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 3 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Miles Boykin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 27/37 | 374 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrel Williams | 9 | 62 | 6.9 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 8 | 54 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Darwin Thompson | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 5 | 97 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 8 | 89 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 5 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 5 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 3 | 4 | 43 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Byron Pringle | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.7%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.24
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.50