2019 · Week 3

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

28·33

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · astroturf

Closing spread

KC -4.5

Total

52

Model margin

-0.5est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapChiefs
  • +0.203EPA / play+0.135
  • 48.1%Success rate47.0%
  • +0.322EPA / dropback+0.247
  • +0.088EPA / rush-0.094
  • 12.0%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +3.13CPOE+1.86
  • 48.0%Third-down rate48.7%
  • 68.9%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 2.90Points / drive2.59
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 10–5 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. KC are 10-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4BAL @ KC20–37KC
2024 · W1BAL @ KC20–27KC
2023 · playoffsKC @ BAL17–10KC
2021 · W2KC @ BAL35–36BAL
2020 · W3KC @ BAL34–20KC
2018 · W14BAL @ KC24–27KC
2015 · W15KC @ BAL34–14KC
2012 · W5BAL @ KC9–6BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–KC
KCQ1 15:00737Punt0–0
BALQ1 10:541484Touchdown6–0
KCQ1 4:241258Touchdown6–7
BALQ2 14:18822Turnover on downs6–7
KCQ2 10:35547Touchdown6–14
BALQ2 7:52628Punt6–14
KCQ2 4:27396Touchdown6–20
BALQ2 3:00724Punt6–20
KCQ2 1:18969Field goal6–23
BALQ2 0:0500End of half6–23
BALQ3 15:00975Touchdown13–23
KCQ3 10:35534Turnover on downs13–23
BALQ3 7:5435Punt13–23
KCQ3 6:211077Touchdown13–30
BALQ3 2:071375Touchdown19–30
KCQ4 12:22518Punt19–30
BALQ4 10:401069Field goal22–30
KCQ4 6:39752Field goal22–33
BALQ4 4:36970Touchdown28–33
KCQ4 2:01317End of half28–33

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson22/4326700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram161036.43
Gus Edwards7537.60
Lamar Jackson8465.81
Justice Hill111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nick Boyle45580
Marquise Brown29490
Willie Snead35470
Seth Roberts22370
Mark Ingram44320
Gus Edwards22150
Mark Andrews37150
Hayden Hurst25140
Justice Hill0300
Miles Boykin0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes27/3737430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darrel Williams9626.90
LeSean McCoy8546.81
Patrick Mahomes492.30
Darwin Thompson382.70
Mecole Hardman177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mecole Hardman25971
Travis Kelce78890
Sammy Watkins58640
Darrel Williams55470
Demarcus Robinson34431
LeSean McCoy33261
Byron Pringle1170
Blake Bell1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

1.83%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.7%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.50