2023 · CON

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

17·10

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

BAL -4.5

Total

44

Model margin

+2.5est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapRavens
  • +0.021EPA / play+0.069
  • 43.8%Success rate47.3%
  • +0.082EPA / dropback+0.111
  • -0.111EPA / rush+0.009
  • 7.6%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +1.52CPOE+2.73
  • 44.9%Third-down rate42.3%
  • 51.6%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
  • 1.89Points / drive2.25
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 10–5 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. BAL are 5-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4BAL @ KC20–37KC
2024 · W1BAL @ KC20–27KC
2021 · W2KC @ BAL35–36BAL
2020 · W3KC @ BAL34–20KC
2019 · W3BAL @ KC28–33KC
2018 · W14BAL @ KC24–27KC
2015 · W15KC @ BAL34–14KC
2012 · W5BAL @ KC9–6BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–BAL
BALQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
KCQ1 13:261181Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 7:41675Touchdown7–7
KCQ1 4:581675Touchdown14–7
BALQ2 10:5648Turnover14–7
KCQ2 9:26720Turnover on downs14–7
BALQ2 6:18519Punt14–7
KCQ2 3:4930Punt14–7
BALQ2 2:4736Punt14–7
KCQ2 1:461045Field goal17–7
BALQ2 0:0400End of half17–7
KCQ3 15:0037Punt17–7
BALQ3 13:3534Punt17–7
KCQ3 12:13933Punt17–7
BALQ3 7:05841Punt17–7
KCQ3 2:3134Punt17–7
BALQ3 0:49578Turnover17–7
KCQ4 14:52817Punt17–7
BALQ4 10:351274Turnover17–7
KCQ4 6:4537Punt17–7
BALQ4 5:00829Field goal17–10
KCQ4 2:34433End of half17–10

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes30/3924110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco24682.81
Patrick Mahomes6152.50
Travis Kelce155.00
Clyde Edwards-Helaire111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce11111161
Rashee Rice89460
Marquez Valdes-Scantling22380
Justin Watson12160
Isiah Pacheco44140
Noah Gray2580
Clyde Edwards-Helaire2230
Richie James0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson20/3727211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson8546.80
Gus Edwards3206.70
Zay Flowers242.00
Justice Hill331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers581151
Nelson Agholor13390
Justice Hill47340
Odell Beckham Jr.36220
Gus Edwards11160
Isaiah Likely23160
Mark Andrews22150
Lamar Jackson11130
Rashod Bateman1320

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

1.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.8%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.73
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.52