Closing spread
BAL -4.5
Total
44
Model margin
+2.5est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.021EPA / play+0.069
- 43.8%Success rate47.3%
- +0.082EPA / dropback+0.111
- -0.111EPA / rush+0.009
- 7.6%Explosive rate9.8%
- +1.52CPOE+2.73
- 44.9%Third-down rate42.3%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
- 1.89Points / drive2.25
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 10–5 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. BAL are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 30/39 | 241 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 24 | 68 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 11 | 11 | 116 | 1 |
| Rashee Rice | 8 | 9 | 46 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 4 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Richie James | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 20/37 | 272 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 8 | 54 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 5 | 8 | 115 | 1 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 4 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.73
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.52