Closing spread
KC -3
Total
46
Model margin
-1.4est.
KC perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.199EPA / play+0.071
- 49.4%Success rate47.7%
- +0.328EPA / dropback+0.142
- +0.053EPA / rush-0.058
- 12.0%Explosive rate5.8%
- +4.67CPOE+2.51
- 47.9%Third-down rate48.6%
- 76.9%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 2.80Points / drive2.36
- 1.0%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 10–5 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. KC are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 26/41 | 273 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 16 | 122 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 13 | 46 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Zay Flowers | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Likely | 9 | 12 | 111 | 1 |
| Rashod Bateman | 2 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 6 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | 6 | 10 | 37 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 20/28 | 291 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 15 | 45 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Xavier Worthy | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Carson Steele | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | 7 | 9 | 103 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 2 | 3 | 47 | 1 |
| Noah Gray | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.2%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.13
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.42