2024 · Week 1

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

20·27

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

KC -3

Total

46

Model margin

-1.4est.

KC perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapChiefs
  • +0.199EPA / play+0.071
  • 49.4%Success rate47.7%
  • +0.328EPA / dropback+0.142
  • +0.053EPA / rush-0.058
  • 12.0%Explosive rate5.8%
  • +4.67CPOE+2.51
  • 47.9%Third-down rate48.6%
  • 76.9%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 2.80Points / drive2.36
  • 1.0%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 10–5 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. KC are 10-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4BAL @ KC20–37KC
2023 · playoffsKC @ BAL17–10KC
2021 · W2KC @ BAL35–36BAL
2020 · W3KC @ BAL34–20KC
2019 · W3BAL @ KC28–33KC
2018 · W14BAL @ KC24–27KC
2015 · W15KC @ BAL34–14KC
2012 · W5BAL @ KC9–6BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–KC
BALQ1 15:001375Touchdown7–0
KCQ1 8:14552Touchdown7–7
BALQ1 5:55420Punt7–7
KCQ1 2:55534Punt7–7
BALQ2 14:531-6Turnover7–7
KCQ2 14:44411Field goal7–10
BALQ2 13:37731Turnover on downs7–10
KCQ2 9:39743Field goal7–13
BALQ2 5:44840Missed field goal7–13
KCQ2 1:5010Turnover7–13
BALQ2 1:44944Field goal10–13
KCQ2 0:0300End of half10–13
KCQ3 15:00877Touchdown10–20
BALQ3 11:28725Punt10–20
KCQ3 8:24950Punt10–20
BALQ3 3:37890Touchdown17–20
KCQ4 14:47870Touchdown17–27
BALQ4 10:251256Field goal20–27
KCQ4 4:54617Punt20–27
BALQ4 1:501177End of half20–27

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson26/4127310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson161227.60
Derrick Henry13463.51
Zay Flowers2147.00
Justice Hill133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Isaiah Likely9121111
Rashod Bateman25530
Justice Hill68520
Zay Flowers610370
Mark Andrews22140
Nelson Agholor1160
Derrick Henry0200

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes20/2829111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco15453.01
Xavier Worthy12121.01
Patrick Mahomes231.50
Carson Steele231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashee Rice791030
Xavier Worthy23471
Noah Gray33370
Travis Kelce34340
Isiah Pacheco23330
Justin Watson11250
Samaje Perine12100
Patrick Mahomes1120
JuJu Smith-Schuster0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.2%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.13
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.42