2015 · Week 15

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

34·14

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Jimmy Clausen

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 41°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

KC -6.5

Total

41

Model margin

-5.1est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapRavens
  • +0.033EPA / play-0.081
  • 44.0%Success rate42.4%
  • +0.067EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.024EPA / rush-0.170
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +0.03CPOE-0.66
  • 36.6%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate49.4%
  • 1.92Points / drive1.48
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 10–5 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. BAL are 5-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4BAL @ KC20–37KC
2024 · W1BAL @ KC20–27KC
2023 · playoffsKC @ BAL17–10KC
2021 · W2KC @ BAL35–36BAL
2020 · W3KC @ BAL34–20KC
2019 · W3BAL @ KC28–33KC
2018 · W14BAL @ KC24–27KC
2012 · W5BAL @ KC9–6BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–BAL
KCQ1 15:001074Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 9:13645Touchdown7–7
KCQ1 6:3032Punt7–7
BALQ1 4:56536Opp touchdown14–7
BALQ1 2:49413Turnover on downs14–7
KCQ1 1:17324Touchdown21–7
BALQ2 14:56923Punt21–7
KCQ2 9:37635Punt21–7
BALQ2 6:0437Punt21–7
KCQ2 4:06729Field goal24–7
BALQ2 0:50557Touchdown24–14
BALQ3 15:0039Punt24–14
KCQ3 13:2334Punt24–14
BALQ3 11:131038Punt24–14
KCQ3 5:57617Punt24–14
BALQ3 2:07441Punt24–14
KCQ3 0:261386Field goal27–14
BALQ4 6:45762Opp touchdown34–14
BALQ4 4:36932Turnover34–14
KCQ4 2:5038Punt34–14
BALQ4 1:4043Turnover on downs34–14
KCQ4 0:5700End of half34–14

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith21/2517110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Charcandrick West16764.81
Alex Smith4174.30
Knile Davis5142.80
Albert Wilson188.00
Chase Daniel2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce67730
Jeremy Maclin710501
Albert Wilson44270
Jason Avant22120
Charcandrick West2290

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Clausen26/4528122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terrance West7355.00
Jimmy Clausen5306.00
Javorius Allen4184.50
Terrence Magee252.50
Chris Givens1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kamar Aiken8121281
Jeremy Butler35600
Maxx Williams56310
Chris Givens15170
Terrance West22110
Chris Matthews1460
Terrence Magee1120
Javorius Allen0100
Daniel Brown0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.53.0%3.3%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.4%3.5%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

3.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

35.7%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.73
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.82
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-5.06