Closing spread
KC -6.5
Total
41
Model margin
-5.1est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.033EPA / play-0.081
- 44.0%Success rate42.4%
- +0.067EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.170
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.1%
- +0.03CPOE-0.66
- 36.6%Third-down rate37.0%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate49.4%
- 1.92Points / drive1.48
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 10–5 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. BAL are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 21/25 | 171 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charcandrick West | 16 | 76 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 7 | 73 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 7 | 10 | 50 | 1 |
| Albert Wilson | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Clausen | 26/45 | 281 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance West | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Clausen | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Terrence Magee | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Chris Givens | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamar Aiken | 8 | 12 | 128 | 1 |
| Jeremy Butler | 3 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 5 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Chris Givens | 1 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Chris Matthews | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Terrence Magee | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Brown | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
35.7%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.73
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.82
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-5.06