2021 · Week 2

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

35·36

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

KC -3.5

Total

53.5

Model margin

-1.5est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Nothing filed.

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapRavens
  • +0.140EPA / play+0.009
  • 51.1%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.216EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.024EPA / rush-0.046
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +2.81CPOE+0.31
  • 52.1%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 60.0%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
  • 2.66Points / drive1.93
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 10–5 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. BAL are 5-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4BAL @ KC20–37KC
2024 · W1BAL @ KC20–27KC
2023 · playoffsKC @ BAL17–10KC
2020 · W3KC @ BAL34–20KC
2019 · W3BAL @ KC28–33KC
2018 · W14BAL @ KC24–27KC
2015 · W15KC @ BAL34–14KC
2012 · W5BAL @ KC9–6BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–BAL
BALQ1 15:0032Opp touchdown7–0
BALQ1 14:10673Touchdown7–7
KCQ1 10:36892Touchdown14–7
BALQ1 6:05947Turnover14–7
KCQ1 1:13527Punt14–7
BALQ2 14:2037Punt14–7
KCQ2 12:05728Punt14–7
BALQ2 8:521077Touchdown14–14
KCQ2 3:21767Touchdown21–14
BALQ2 0:51665Field goal21–17
KCQ2 0:0300End of half21–17
KCQ3 15:00669Touchdown28–17
BALQ3 11:53585Touchdown28–24
KCQ3 9:30670Touchdown35–24
BALQ3 6:505-4Punt35–24
KCQ3 3:143-2Turnover35–24
BALQ3 2:01656Touchdown35–30
KCQ4 14:13513Punt35–30
BALQ4 11:161563Touchdown35–36
KCQ4 3:14441Turnover35–36
BALQ4 1:20411End of half35–36

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes24/3134331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clyde Edwards-Helaire13463.50
Tyreek Hill11515.00
Patrick Mahomes133.00
Darrel Williams3-2-0.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce781091
Byron Pringle22631
Mecole Hardman58550
Demarcus Robinson34461
Blake Bell11200
Jerick McKinnon11140
Tyreek Hill34140
Joseph Fortson11110

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson18/2623912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson161076.72
Ty'Son Williams13775.90
Latavius Murray9364.01
Devonta Freeman22914.50
Patrick Ricard122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Brown6101131
Mark Andrews55570
Sammy Watkins47440
Ty'Son Williams22160
Josh Oliver1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.1%

Expected total

46.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-1.48