Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
53.5
Model margin
-1.5est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.140EPA / play+0.009
- 51.1%Success rate46.3%
- +0.216EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.046
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.4%
- +2.81CPOE+0.31
- 52.1%Third-down rate36.5%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
- 2.66Points / drive1.93
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 10–5 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. BAL are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 24/31 | 343 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 13 | 46 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 8 | 109 | 1 |
| Byron Pringle | 2 | 2 | 63 | 1 |
| Mecole Hardman | 5 | 8 | 55 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 3 | 4 | 46 | 1 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Joseph Fortson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 18/26 | 239 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 16 | 107 | 6.7 | 2 |
| Ty'Son Williams | 13 | 77 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 9 | 36 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 6 | 10 | 113 | 1 |
| Mark Andrews | 5 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 4 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Ty'Son Williams | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.1%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.11
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-1.48