2020 · Week 3

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

34·20

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

BAL -3.5

Total

55

Model margin

+4.2est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapRavens
  • +0.177EPA / play+0.109
  • 50.2%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.288EPA / dropback+0.125
  • -0.056EPA / rush+0.093
  • 11.0%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +2.60CPOE-0.32
  • 49.5%Third-down rate49.8%
  • 70.8%Red-zone TD rate71.9%
  • 2.85Points / drive2.64
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 10–5 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. BAL are 5-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4BAL @ KC20–37KC
2024 · W1BAL @ KC20–27KC
2023 · playoffsKC @ BAL17–10KC
2021 · W2KC @ BAL35–36BAL
2019 · W3BAL @ KC28–33KC
2018 · W14BAL @ KC24–27KC
2015 · W15KC @ BAL34–14KC
2012 · W5BAL @ KC9–6BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–BAL
BALQ1 15:001067Field goal0–3
KCQ1 9:20770Touchdown6–3
BALQ1 6:434-4Punt6–3
KCQ1 4:121372Touchdown13–9
BALQ2 12:5200Touchdown13–10
KCQ2 12:4036Punt13–10
BALQ2 11:0634Punt13–10
KCQ2 10:06768Touchdown20–10
BALQ2 6:4055Punt20–10
KCQ2 4:39789Touchdown27–10
BALQ2 1:48425Turnover27–10
KCQ2 0:45528Missed field goal27–10
BALQ2 0:0520End of half27–10
KCQ3 15:00444Turnover27–10
BALQ3 12:561160Field goal27–13
KCQ3 6:13624Turnover on downs27–13
BALQ3 2:57649Touchdown27–20
KCQ4 14:551375Touchdown34–20
BALQ4 8:141023Turnover on downs34–20
KCQ4 4:501041Turnover on downs34–20
BALQ4 0:2300End of half34–20

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes31/4238540

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clyde Edwards-Helaire20643.20
Patrick Mahomes4266.51
Tyreek Hill22512.50
Darwin Thompson2115.50
Darrel Williams263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce67870
Mecole Hardman46811
Tyreek Hill56771
Clyde Edwards-Helaire56700
Sammy Watkins78620
Darrel Williams2210
Demarcus Robinson0100
Nick Keizer0100
Darwin Thompson0200

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson15/289710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson9839.20
Gus Edwards4399.80
Mark Ingram7304.30
J.K. Dobbins166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
J.K. Dobbins44380
Mark Andrews38220
Marquise Brown26130
Miles Boykin1280
Devin Duvernay2370
Nick Boyle1151
Willie Snead2240
Mark Ingram0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.3%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.50
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.20