Closing spread
BAL -3.5
Total
55
Model margin
+4.2est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.177EPA / play+0.109
- 50.2%Success rate45.2%
- +0.288EPA / dropback+0.125
- -0.056EPA / rush+0.093
- 11.0%Explosive rate10.3%
- +2.60CPOE-0.32
- 49.5%Third-down rate49.8%
- 70.8%Red-zone TD rate71.9%
- 2.85Points / drive2.64
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 10–5 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. BAL are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 31/42 | 385 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 20 | 64 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Darwin Thompson | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 7 | 87 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 4 | 6 | 81 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 6 | 77 | 1 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 5 | 6 | 70 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 7 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Keizer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Darwin Thompson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 15/28 | 97 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 9 | 83 | 9.2 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 4 | 39 | 9.8 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 3 | 8 | 22 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 2 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Miles Boykin | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Willie Snead | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.50
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.20