2025 · Week 4

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

20·37

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

BAL -2.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+1.0est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapChiefs
  • +0.037EPA / play+0.042
  • 44.6%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.036EPA / dropback+0.093
  • +0.038EPA / rush-0.060
  • 10.4%Explosive rate7.2%
  • +2.86CPOE-1.09
  • 41.4%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
  • 2.30Points / drive2.23
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 10–5 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. KC are 10-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W1BAL @ KC20–27KC
2023 · playoffsKC @ BAL17–10KC
2021 · W2KC @ BAL35–36BAL
2020 · W3KC @ BAL34–20KC
2019 · W3BAL @ KC28–33KC
2018 · W14BAL @ KC24–27KC
2015 · W15KC @ BAL34–14KC
2012 · W5BAL @ KC9–6BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–KC
BALQ1 15:00970Touchdown7–0
KCQ1 9:35933Field goal7–3
BALQ1 5:40732Turnover7–3
KCQ1 1:441379Field goal7–6
BALQ2 10:00432Punt7–6
KCQ2 6:46556Touchdown7–13
BALQ2 4:0049Turnover on downs7–13
KCQ2 2:57640Touchdown7–20
BALQ2 1:4139Turnover7–20
KCQ2 1:20610Missed field goal7–20
BALQ2 0:26429Field goal10–20
KCQ3 15:00665Touchdown10–27
BALQ3 11:51756Field goal13–27
KCQ3 7:221049Field goal13–30
BALQ3 1:0643Turnover on downs13–30
KCQ4 14:21424Touchdown13–37
BALQ4 13:15934Turnover on downs13–37
KCQ4 10:121124Punt13–37
BALQ4 3:29386Touchdown20–37
KCQ4 1:5615End of half20–37

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson14/2014711
Cooper Rush9/135200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justice Hill37625.31
Lamar Jackson6488.00
Derrick Henry8425.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers78740
Justice Hill56411
Mark Andrews78300
Rashod Bateman12240
Derrick Henry23160
Tylan Wallace12140
DeAndre Hopkins0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes25/3727040

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Xavier Worthy23819.00
Isiah Pacheco7355.00
Kareem Hunt13342.60
Brashard Smith492.30
Patrick Mahomes451.30
Gardner Minshew2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Xavier Worthy58830
Travis Kelce55480
Marquise Brown35381
JuJu Smith-Schuster46361
Brashard Smith34270
Kareem Hunt11130
Isiah Pacheco23131
Tyquan Thornton12111
Noah Gray1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.8%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.77
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.02