Closing spread
BAL -2.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play+0.042
- 44.6%Success rate44.5%
- +0.036EPA / dropback+0.093
- +0.038EPA / rush-0.060
- 10.4%Explosive rate7.2%
- +2.86CPOE-1.09
- 41.4%Third-down rate39.4%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 2.30Points / drive2.23
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 10–5 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. KC are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 14/20 | 147 | 1 | 1 |
| Cooper Rush | 9/13 | 52 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justice Hill | 3 | 76 | 25.3 | 1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 6 | 48 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 7 | 8 | 74 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 5 | 6 | 41 | 1 |
| Mark Andrews | 7 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Tylan Wallace | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 25/37 | 270 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Worthy | 2 | 38 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 13 | 34 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Brashard Smith | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Worthy | 5 | 8 | 83 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 3 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 4 | 6 | 36 | 1 |
| Brashard Smith | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 2 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.8%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.77
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.02