2018 · Week 14

Final / OT

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

24·27

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 27°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

KC -6.5

Total

49

Model margin

+4.0est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapChiefs
  • +0.035EPA / play+0.236
  • 45.8%Success rate50.0%
  • +0.061EPA / dropback+0.349
  • +0.003EPA / rush+0.018
  • 8.8%Explosive rate12.1%
  • -3.77CPOE+4.64
  • 45.4%Third-down rate47.8%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate75.5%
  • 2.01Points / drive3.03
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 10–5 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. KC are 10-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4BAL @ KC20–37KC
2024 · W1BAL @ KC20–27KC
2023 · playoffsKC @ BAL17–10KC
2021 · W2KC @ BAL35–36BAL
2020 · W3KC @ BAL34–20KC
2019 · W3BAL @ KC28–33KC
2015 · W15KC @ BAL34–14KC
2012 · W5BAL @ KC9–6BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–KC
KCQ1 15:00828Punt0–0
BALQ1 11:22513Punt0–0
KCQ1 8:441163Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 3:03875Touchdown7–7
KCQ2 14:17727Missed field goal7–7
BALQ2 11:37934Field goal10–7
KCQ2 7:00960Touchdown10–14
BALQ2 2:37417Punt10–14
KCQ2 1:36870Field goal10–17
BALQ3 15:00746Turnover on downs10–17
KCQ3 11:3937Turnover10–17
BALQ3 10:251468Touchdown17–17
KCQ3 3:101348Punt17–17
BALQ4 11:21830Punt17–17
KCQ4 6:503-3Punt17–17
BALQ4 4:58314Touchdown24–17
KCQ4 4:041285Touchdown24–24
BALQ4 0:533-2Turnover24–24
KCQ4 0:382-2Missed field goal24–24
KCOT1059Field goal24–27
BALOT1026Turnover on downs24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson13/2414720
Robert Griffin III0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Gus Edwards16674.20
Lamar Jackson14674.80
Kenneth Dixon8597.41
Ty Montgomery210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Willie Snead57610
Michael Crabtree34310
John Brown26231
Kenneth Dixon11210
Maxx Williams11101
Ty Montgomery1310
Chris Moore0200
Mark Andrews0200

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes35/5337721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Spencer Ware15755.00
Damien Williams8141.81
Tyreek Hill166.00
Patrick Mahomes2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill8141390
Travis Kelce79771
Spencer Ware55540
Demarcus Robinson57420
Demetrius Harris33280
Damien Williams45161
Chris Conley23130
Darrel Williams1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

4.87%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.7%

Expected total

47.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.87
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.35
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.96