Closing spread
KC -6.5
Total
49
Model margin
+4.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play+0.236
- 45.8%Success rate50.0%
- +0.061EPA / dropback+0.349
- +0.003EPA / rush+0.018
- 8.8%Explosive rate12.1%
- -3.77CPOE+4.64
- 45.4%Third-down rate47.8%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate75.5%
- 2.01Points / drive3.03
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 10–5 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. KC are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 13/24 | 147 | 2 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 16 | 67 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 14 | 67 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Kenneth Dixon | 8 | 59 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Ty Montgomery | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Snead | 5 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| John Brown | 2 | 6 | 23 | 1 |
| Kenneth Dixon | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 35/53 | 377 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Ware | 15 | 75 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 8 | 14 | 139 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 9 | 77 | 1 |
| Spencer Ware | 5 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 5 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 4 | 5 | 16 | 1 |
| Chris Conley | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
4.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.87
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.96