1999 · Week 7

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Billy Joe Tolliver

3·31

Giants

New York

QB Kent Graham

Giants Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 54°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

NYG -3

Total

34

Model margin

+3.5est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapGiants
  • -0.148EPA / play-0.084
  • 36.9%Success rate38.6%
  • -0.081EPA / dropback-0.016
  • -0.247EPA / rush-0.207
  • 7.7%Explosive rate6.4%
  • 34.1%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 45.0%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
  • 1.12Points / drive1.14
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.8%
  • +0.007EPA / play allowed-0.039

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 10–6 since 1999

NO have won 4 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. NYG are 6-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NO @ NYG34–27NO
2025 · W5NYG @ NO14–26NO
2024 · W14NO @ NYG14–11NO
2023 · W15NYG @ NO6–24NO
2021 · W4NYG @ NO27–21NYG
2018 · W4NO @ NYG33–18NO
2016 · W2NO @ NYG13–16NYG
2015 · W8NYG @ NO49–52NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00819Punt0–0
NOQ1 11:08424Punt0–0
NYGQ1 9:401280Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 3:44660Field goal3–7
NYGQ1 0:00929Field goal3–10
NOQ2 10:4843Punt3–10
NYGQ2 8:5979Punt3–10
NOQ2 5:1832Punt3–10
NYGQ2 3:48856Touchdown3–17
NOQ2 1:033-5Punt3–17
NYGQ2 0:32573Touchdown3–24
NOQ3 15:003-1Punt3–24
NYGQ3 13:54823Turnover3–24
NOQ3 9:49740Turnover3–24
NYGQ3 7:1431Punt3–24
NOQ3 5:3637Turnover3–30
NYGQ3 4:13112Touchdown3–31
NOQ3 4:07618Turnover on downs3–31
NYGQ3 1:2234Punt3–31
NOQ3 0:001350Punt3–31
NYGQ4 9:2939Punt3–31
NOQ4 7:19971Turnover on downs3–31
NYGQ4 3:4335Punt3–31
NOQ4 2:2010Turnover3–31
NYGQ4 2:1322Turnover3–31
NOQ4 1:5041Turnover on downs3–31
NYGQ4 0:0600End of half3–31

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Billy Joe Tolliver14/3317603
Lamar Smith0/1000
Danny Wuerffel0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams241114.60
Marvin Powell111.00
Danny Wuerffel100.00
Lamar Smith1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eddie Kennison58620
Josh Wilcox22300
Andre Hastings16240
Lawrence Dawsey25180
Brett Bech0200
Ricky Williams12-90

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kent Graham19/2923921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeShon Johnson18362.00
Joe Montgomery14282.01
Ike Hilliard12424.00
Tiki Barber199.00
Kent Graham393.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pete Mitchell55690
Joe Jurevicius23631
Amani Toomer34591
Ike Hilliard36170
LeShon Johnson23160
Tiki Barber1170
Howard Cross1120
David Patten0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.39
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.39
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.49