Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
34
Model margin
+3.5est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.148EPA / play-0.084
- 36.9%Success rate38.6%
- -0.081EPA / dropback-0.016
- -0.247EPA / rush-0.207
- 7.7%Explosive rate6.4%
- 34.1%Third-down rate35.7%
- 45.0%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 1.12Points / drive1.14
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.8%
- +0.007EPA / play allowed-0.039
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 9–6 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.7 points. NYG are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Joe Tolliver | 14/33 | 176 | 0 | 3 |
| Lamar Smith | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Wuerffel | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 24 | 111 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Marvin Powell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Danny Wuerffel | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Kennison | 5 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Josh Wilcox | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Andre Hastings | 1 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Lawrence Dawsey | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Brett Bech | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 1 | 2 | -9 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kent Graham | 19/29 | 239 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeShon Johnson | 18 | 36 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Joe Montgomery | 14 | 28 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Ike Hilliard | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Kent Graham | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Mitchell | 5 | 5 | 69 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 2 | 3 | 63 | 1 |
| Amani Toomer | 3 | 4 | 59 | 1 |
| Ike Hilliard | 3 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| LeShon Johnson | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Howard Cross | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| David Patten | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.39
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.49