2025 · Week 5

Final

Giants

New York

QB Jaxson Dart

14·26

Saints

New Orleans

QB Spencer Rattler

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -1.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapSaints
  • +0.043EPA / play-0.076
  • 42.9%Success rate42.4%
  • +0.099EPA / dropback-0.032
  • -0.040EPA / rush-0.155
  • 8.6%Explosive rate5.5%
  • -1.30CPOE+1.72
  • 39.6%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 56.3%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
  • 2.06Points / drive1.53
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 10–6 since 1999

NO have won 4 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. NO are 9-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NO @ NYG34–27NO
2024 · W14NO @ NYG14–11NO
2023 · W15NYG @ NO6–24NO
2021 · W4NYG @ NO27–21NYG
2018 · W4NO @ NYG33–18NO
2016 · W2NO @ NYG13–16NYG
2015 · W8NYG @ NO49–52NO
2012 · W14NO @ NYG27–52NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–NO
NOQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
NYGQ1 13:39956Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 9:341550Field goal7–3
NYGQ1 1:40870Touchdown14–3
NOQ2 13:011149Field goal14–6
NYGQ2 7:41517Punt14–12
NOQ2 5:27187Touchdown14–13
NYGQ2 5:16521Punt14–13
NOQ2 2:32714Missed field goal14–13
NYGQ2 1:25323Turnover14–13
NOQ2 1:02730Field goal14–16
NYGQ3 15:00718Turnover14–16
NOQ3 10:52955Field goal14–19
NYGQ3 6:551255Opp touchdown14–26
NYGQ4 14:47930Turnover14–26
NOQ4 9:57527Punt14–26
NYGQ4 6:30713Turnover14–26
NOQ4 5:07717Missed field goal14–26
NYGQ4 1:56732Turnover on downs14–26
NOQ4 0:4000End of half14–26

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jaxson Dart26/4020222

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Skattebo15593.90
Jaxson Dart7557.90
Devin Singletary6203.30
Wan'Dale Robinson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Daniel Bellinger44520
Cam Skattebo67450
Theo Johnson67332
Darius Slayton36310
Wan'Dale Robinson57300
Beaux Collins1370
Devin Singletary1240
Jalin Hyatt0300

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Spencer Rattler21/3122510
Taysom Hill1/11900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kendre Miller10414.10
Alvin Kamara8273.40
Spencer Rattler6213.50
Taysom Hill6-1-0.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashid Shaheed451141
Chris Olave711590
Alvin Kamara46280
Juwan Johnson24170
Devaughn Vele22130
Kendre Miller1180
Brandin Cooks1150
Spencer Rattler1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.71
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.79
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.63