Closing spread
NO -1.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play-0.076
- 42.9%Success rate42.4%
- +0.099EPA / dropback-0.032
- -0.040EPA / rush-0.155
- 8.6%Explosive rate5.5%
- -1.30CPOE+1.72
- 39.6%Third-down rate39.4%
- 56.3%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 2.06Points / drive1.53
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 9–6 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.7 points. NO are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 26/40 | 202 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Skattebo | 15 | 59 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Jaxson Dart | 7 | 55 | 7.9 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Bellinger | 4 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Cam Skattebo | 6 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Theo Johnson | 6 | 7 | 33 | 2 |
| Darius Slayton | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 5 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Beaux Collins | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 21/31 | 225 | 1 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/1 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendre Miller | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Spencer Rattler | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 6 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashid Shaheed | 4 | 5 | 114 | 1 |
| Chris Olave | 7 | 11 | 59 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 4 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Devaughn Vele | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Spencer Rattler | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.71
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.79
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.63