2021 · Week 4

Final / OT

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

27·21

Saints

New Orleans

QB Jameis Winston

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -7.5

Total

43

Model margin

+7.3est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapSaints
  • -0.141EPA / play-0.063
  • 40.2%Success rate41.1%
  • -0.146EPA / dropback+0.003
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.147
  • 5.7%Explosive rate7.0%
  • -4.62CPOE-5.00
  • 35.9%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 47.5%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.88
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 10–6 since 1999

NO have won 4 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. NO are 9-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NO @ NYG34–27NO
2025 · W5NYG @ NO14–26NO
2024 · W14NO @ NYG14–11NO
2023 · W15NYG @ NO6–24NO
2018 · W4NO @ NYG33–18NO
2016 · W2NO @ NYG13–16NYG
2015 · W8NYG @ NO49–52NO
2012 · W14NO @ NYG27–52NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–NO
NYGQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
NOQ1 13:32513Punt0–0
NYGQ1 11:28514Punt0–0
NOQ1 9:241044Turnover on downs0–0
NYGQ1 3:441067Missed field goal0–0
NOQ2 13:15735Missed field goal6–0
NYGQ2 8:59152Touchdown7–0
NOQ2 8:511590Touchdown7–7
NYGQ2 0:23437Turnover7–7
NOQ3 15:00375Touchdown7–14
NYGQ3 13:24970Field goal10–14
NOQ3 8:36529Turnover10–14
NYGQ3 6:08518Punt10–14
NOQ3 3:231168Touchdown10–21
NYGQ4 12:09528Punt10–21
NOQ4 9:2438Punt16–21
NYGQ4 7:01154Touchdown18–21
NOQ4 6:52738Punt18–21
NYGQ4 3:011059Field goal21–21
NOQ4 0:3125End of half21–21
NYGOT1082Touchdown27–21

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones28/4040221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley13524.01
Daniel Jones4276.80
Devontae Booker166.00
Kadarius Toney111.00
Evan Engram1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Golladay671160
Kadarius Toney69780
John Ross34771
Saquon Barkley56741
Evan Engram56270
Kyle Rudolph23240
Devontae Booker1160

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston17/2322610
Taysom Hill2/3901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara261204.60
Taysom Hill6284.72
Tony Jones382.70
Ty Montgomery273.50
Dwayne Washington155.00
Alex Armah122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquez Callaway22740
Deonte Harty58520
Ty Montgomery33420
Taysom Hill22260
Juwan Johnson23201
Chris Hogan22150
Dwayne Washington1160
Adam Trautman1130
Kenny Stills0100
Tony Jones13-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.0%5.8%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.2%

Expected total

40.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.94
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.70
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.35