Closing spread
NO -7.5
Total
43
Model margin
+7.3est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.141EPA / play-0.063
- 40.2%Success rate41.1%
- -0.146EPA / dropback+0.003
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.147
- 5.7%Explosive rate7.0%
- -4.62CPOE-5.00
- 35.9%Third-down rate36.1%
- 47.5%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
- 1.20Points / drive1.88
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 9–6 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.7 points. NO are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 28/40 | 402 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Daniel Jones | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Golladay | 6 | 7 | 116 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 6 | 9 | 78 | 0 |
| John Ross | 3 | 4 | 77 | 1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 5 | 6 | 74 | 1 |
| Evan Engram | 5 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 17/23 | 226 | 1 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2/3 | 9 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 26 | 120 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 2 |
| Tony Jones | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Callaway | 2 | 2 | 74 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 5 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 2 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| Chris Hogan | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Jones | 1 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.2%
Expected total
40.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.94
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.70
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.35