Closing spread
NO -6
Total
39.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.165EPA / play-0.015
- 38.2%Success rate42.2%
- -0.143EPA / dropback+0.052
- -0.205EPA / rush-0.113
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- +0.19CPOE+1.94
- 30.9%Third-down rate39.4%
- 45.8%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
- 1.09Points / drive1.82
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 9–6 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.7 points. NO are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy DeVito | 20/34 | 177 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 2/4 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy DeVito | 4 | 36 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 9 | 14 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 4 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Lawrence Cager | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Eric Gray | 3 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 23/28 | 218 | 3 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 16 | 66 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 2 | 2 | 38 | 1 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| A.T. Perry | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Lynn Bowden | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 3 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 2 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
3.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.2%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.78
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.56