2023 · Week 15

Final

Giants

New York

QB Tommy DeVito

6·24

Saints

New Orleans

QB Derek Carr

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -6

Total

39.5

Model margin

+4.6est.

NO perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapSaints
  • -0.165EPA / play-0.015
  • 38.2%Success rate42.2%
  • -0.143EPA / dropback+0.052
  • -0.205EPA / rush-0.113
  • 7.6%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +0.19CPOE+1.94
  • 30.9%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 45.8%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
  • 1.09Points / drive1.82
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 10–6 since 1999

NO have won 4 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. NO are 9-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NO @ NYG34–27NO
2025 · W5NYG @ NO14–26NO
2024 · W14NO @ NYG14–11NO
2021 · W4NYG @ NO27–21NYG
2018 · W4NO @ NYG33–18NO
2016 · W2NO @ NYG13–16NYG
2015 · W8NYG @ NO49–52NO
2012 · W14NO @ NYG27–52NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–NO
NYGQ1 15:00831Field goal3–0
NOQ1 10:0037Punt3–0
NYGQ1 8:313-3Punt3–0
NOQ1 7:041168Touchdown3–7
NYGQ1 0:293-10Punt3–7
NOQ2 14:08513Punt3–7
NYGQ2 10:25945Punt3–7
NOQ2 5:28624Punt3–7
NYGQ2 2:551136Field goal6–7
NOQ3 15:001278Touchdown6–14
NYGQ3 8:3943Punt6–14
NOQ3 6:20425Field goal6–17
NYGQ3 4:173-1Punt6–17
NOQ3 2:491370Touchdown6–24
NYGQ4 10:47931Turnover on downs6–24
NOQ4 6:48515Punt6–24
NYGQ4 5:031161Turnover on downs6–24
NOQ4 1:5600End of half6–24

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tommy DeVito20/3417700
Tyrod Taylor2/41300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tommy DeVito4369.00
Saquon Barkley9141.60
Matt Breida3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton48630
Darren Waller46400
Wan'Dale Robinson44250
Saquon Barkley22230
Daniel Bellinger22130
Matt Breida23110
Lawrence Cager1190
Eric Gray3460
Isaiah Hodgins0100
Jalin Hyatt0300

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr23/2821830
Taysom Hill0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara16664.10
Jamaal Williams8243.00
Taysom Hill111.00
Derek Carr3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alvin Kamara55440
Juwan Johnson22381
Rashid Shaheed34360
A.T. Perry22340
Lynn Bowden35310
Foster Moreau35130
Jimmy Graham2291
Keith Kirkwood1171
Taysom Hill1140
Jamaal Williams1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

3.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.2%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.78
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+4.56