2024 · Week 14

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Derek Carr

14·11

Giants

New York

QB Tommy DeVito

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 54°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

NO -5.5

Total

41

Model margin

+2.3est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapGiants
  • -0.057EPA / play-0.088
  • 40.6%Success rate41.1%
  • -0.071EPA / dropback-0.073
  • -0.036EPA / rush-0.116
  • 8.5%Explosive rate6.8%
  • -3.67CPOE-1.45
  • 36.3%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
  • 1.72Points / drive1.28
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 10–6 since 1999

NO have won 4 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. NYG are 6-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NO @ NYG34–27NO
2025 · W5NYG @ NO14–26NO
2023 · W15NYG @ NO6–24NO
2021 · W4NYG @ NO27–21NYG
2018 · W4NO @ NYG33–18NO
2016 · W2NO @ NYG13–16NYG
2015 · W8NYG @ NO49–52NO
2012 · W14NO @ NYG27–52NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–NYG
NOQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
NYGQ1 13:32817Turnover on downs0–0
NOQ1 11:36614Missed field goal0–0
NYGQ1 7:5138Punt0–0
NOQ1 6:30998Touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 1:1934Punt7–0
NOQ1 0:1133Punt7–0
NYGQ2 14:02626Field goal7–3
NOQ2 11:2049Turnover on downs7–3
NYGQ2 9:1236Punt7–3
NOQ2 7:5935Punt7–3
NYGQ2 6:1736Punt7–3
NOQ2 4:1755Punt7–3
NYGQ2 1:49519Punt7–3
NOQ2 0:29515Missed field goal7–3
NYGQ3 15:0038Punt7–3
NOQ3 13:25925Turnover7–3
NYGQ3 9:3348Punt7–3
NOQ3 8:21974Touchdown14–3
NYGQ3 3:401051Punt14–3
NOQ4 13:35640Punt14–3
NYGQ4 10:141382Touchdown14–11
NOQ4 4:1138Punt14–11
NYGQ4 3:07729Turnover14–11
NOQ4 1:443-8Punt14–11
NYGQ4 1:21861Missed field goal14–11
NOQ4 0:0800End of half14–11

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr20/3121911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara17442.60
Kendre Miller10323.21
Derek Carr2126.00
Jamaal Williams351.70
Jake Haener1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquez Valdes-Scantling47510
Juwan Johnson45501
Foster Moreau22400
Alvin Kamara55350
Cedrick Wilson Jr.11180
Jamaal Williams22100
Dallin Holker11100
Kevin Austin Jr.1550
Dante Pettis0200
Kendre Miller0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Lock21/4922701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Drew Lock55911.80
Tyrone Tracy Jr.16452.81
Devin Singletary284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Malik Nabers510790
Daniel Bellinger57450
Wan'Dale Robinson411380
Tyrone Tracy Jr.510380
Darius Slayton26270
Jalin Hyatt0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

1.73%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.2%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.17
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+2.30