Closing spread
NO -5.5
Total
41
Model margin
+2.3est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play-0.088
- 40.6%Success rate41.1%
- -0.071EPA / dropback-0.073
- -0.036EPA / rush-0.116
- 8.5%Explosive rate6.8%
- -3.67CPOE-1.45
- 36.3%Third-down rate36.0%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
- 1.72Points / drive1.28
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 9–6 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.7 points. NYG are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 20/31 | 219 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 17 | 44 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Derek Carr | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Jake Haener | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 4 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 4 | 5 | 50 | 1 |
| Foster Moreau | 2 | 2 | 40 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Dallin Holker | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Kevin Austin Jr. | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 21/49 | 227 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 5 | 59 | 11.8 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 16 | 45 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers | 5 | 10 | 79 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 4 | 11 | 38 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 5 | 10 | 38 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 2 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.17
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.30