Closing spread
NO -3.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
-0.3est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.156EPA / play+0.016
- 49.9%Success rate39.9%
- +0.284EPA / dropback+0.054
- -0.011EPA / rush-0.054
- 10.2%Explosive rate9.5%
- +5.42CPOE+0.30
- 46.3%Third-down rate36.5%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
- 2.94Points / drive1.89
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 9–6 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.7 points. NYG are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 18/32 | 217 | 0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/2 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 19 | 134 | 7.1 | 3 |
| Taysom Hill | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Mike Gillislee | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hill | 3 | 3 | 63 | 0 |
| Michael Thomas | 4 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 9 | 47 | 0 |
| Cameron Meredith | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Mike Gillislee | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 31/41 | 255 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Shepard | 10 | 10 | 77 | 1 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 7 | 11 | 60 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 6 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Scott Simonson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.3%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.02
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.28