2018 · Week 4

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

33·18

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 71°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NO -3.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

-0.3est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapGiants
  • +0.156EPA / play+0.016
  • 49.9%Success rate39.9%
  • +0.284EPA / dropback+0.054
  • -0.011EPA / rush-0.054
  • 10.2%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +5.42CPOE+0.30
  • 46.3%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
  • 2.94Points / drive1.89
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 10–6 since 1999

NO have won 4 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. NYG are 6-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NO @ NYG34–27NO
2025 · W5NYG @ NO14–26NO
2024 · W14NO @ NYG14–11NO
2023 · W15NYG @ NO6–24NO
2021 · W4NYG @ NO27–21NYG
2016 · W2NO @ NYG13–16NYG
2015 · W8NYG @ NO49–52NO
2012 · W14NO @ NYG27–52NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–NYG
NOQ1 15:00411Punt0–0
NYGQ1 13:231060Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 8:241451Field goal3–7
NYGQ2 14:55613Punt3–7
NOQ2 10:49959Field goal6–7
NYGQ2 7:18623Turnover6–7
NOQ2 4:3333Field goal9–7
NYGQ2 3:3632Punt9–7
NOQ2 2:32640Field goal12–7
NYGQ2 0:1100End of half12–7
NYGQ3 15:00725Punt12–7
NOQ3 10:33871Touchdown19–7
NYGQ3 7:16975Field goal19–10
NOQ3 2:0230Punt19–10
NYGQ3 0:283-4Punt19–10
NOQ4 13:261474Touchdown26–10
NYGQ4 6:471075Touchdown26–18
NOQ4 3:44783Touchdown33–18
NYGQ4 2:06631Turnover33–18
NOQ4 0:5700End of half33–18

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees18/3221700
Taysom Hill1/21000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara191347.13
Taysom Hill4287.00
Mike Gillislee263.00
Dwayne Washington221.00
Ted Ginn111.00
Drew Brees4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Hill33630
Michael Thomas44470
Alvin Kamara59470
Cameron Meredith34320
Benjamin Watson13230
Mike Gillislee1190
Ted Ginn0300
Tre'Quan Smith0200
Taysom Hill11-40

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning31/4125510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley10444.41
Odell Beckham Jr.11010.00
Wayne Gallman263.00
Eli Manning252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sterling Shepard1010771
Odell Beckham Jr.711600
Saquon Barkley68560
Rhett Ellison35290
Wayne Gallman33170
Russell Shepard1390
Scott Simonson1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.5%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

7.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.3%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.02
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.28