2026 · Week 6

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Tyler Shough

34·27

Giants

New York

QB Jameis Winston

MetLife Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

NO -1.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+4.2est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapGiants
  • -0.031EPA / play+0.027
  • 41.9%Success rate42.9%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback+0.118
  • -0.169EPA / rush-0.102
  • 6.1%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +0.08CPOE-2.00
  • 43.6%Third-down rate44.9%
  • 76.7%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 2.19Points / drive2.15
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 10–6 since 1999

NO have won 4 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. NYG are 6-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5NYG @ NO14–26NO
2024 · W14NO @ NYG14–11NO
2023 · W15NYG @ NO6–24NO
2021 · W4NYG @ NO27–21NYG
2018 · W4NO @ NYG33–18NO
2016 · W2NO @ NYG13–16NYG
2015 · W8NYG @ NO49–52NO
2012 · W14NO @ NYG27–52NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–NYG
NYGQ1 15:003-2Punt0–0
NOQ1 14:09517Punt0–0
NYGQ1 11:581293Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 5:14521Punt0–7
NYGQ1 2:003-6Punt0–7
NOQ1 0:2133Punt0–7
NYGQ2 14:08416Punt0–7
NOQ2 11:101039Missed field goal0–7
NYGQ2 6:511029Field goal0–10
NOQ2 2:27616Field goal3–10
NYGQ2 1:1800Touchdown3–10
NOQ2 1:11528Touchdown10–10
NYGQ2 0:0100End of half10–10
NOQ3 15:00769Touchdown17–10
NYGQ3 12:21412Punt17–10
NOQ3 10:32952Touchdown24–10
NYGQ3 5:43536Turnover24–10
NOQ3 4:16525Field goal27–10
NYGQ3 1:123-5Punt27–10
NOQ4 14:5039Punt27–10
NYGQ4 12:4127Turnover27–10
NOQ4 12:19221Touchdown34–10
NYGQ4 11:31528Turnover34–10
NOQ4 10:2228Turnover34–10
NYGQ4 9:31745Touchdown34–18
NOQ4 7:0030Punt34–18
NYGQ4 5:54373Touchdown34–24
NOQ4 5:0635Punt34–24
NYGQ4 3:59579Field goal34–27
NOQ4 2:0437Punt34–27
NYGQ4 0:57457Turnover on downs34–27
NOQ4 0:0600End of half34–27

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Shough16/3014430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kendre Miller20703.50
CJ Donaldson6396.50
Alvin Kamara7344.90
Tyler Shough5326.41

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave47431
Devaughn Vele36420
Alvin Kamara24351
Oscar Delp22100
Bryce Lance2491
Barion Brown1150
Noah Fant0100
Juwan Johnson0200
Kendre Miller2200
CJ Donaldson0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
J.J. McCarthy11/2124311
Jameis Winston14/2615212

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.J. McCarthy22613.00
Darnell Mooney12020.00
Tyrone Tracy Jr.6183.01
Devin Singletary4143.50
Jameis Winston341.30
Najee Harris420.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Malik Nabers12151650
Isaiah Likely611991
Charlie Jones23660
Tyrone Tracy Jr.23271
Devin Singletary11190
Malachi Fields28190
Darnell Mooney0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.4%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.02
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.24