Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+2.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Saintsedge mapGiants
- +0.030EPA / play+0.363
- 44.3%Success rate59.1%
- +0.067EPA / dropback+0.667
- -0.075EPA / rush+0.059
- 9.1%Explosive rate6.1%
- -1.21CPOE+13.38
- 47.1%Third-down rate90.0%
- 80.0%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 2.20Points / drive3.97
- 3.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 9–6 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.7 points. NYG are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.11
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.11