2015 · Week 8

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

49·52

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -3

Total

51.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

NO perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapSaints
  • +0.025EPA / play+0.080
  • 44.0%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.106EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.078
  • 8.0%Explosive rate10.0%
  • -1.12CPOE+2.78
  • 37.1%Third-down rate48.9%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
  • 2.02Points / drive2.09
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 10–6 since 1999

NO have won 4 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. NO are 9-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NO @ NYG34–27NO
2025 · W5NYG @ NO14–26NO
2024 · W14NO @ NYG14–11NO
2023 · W15NYG @ NO6–24NO
2021 · W4NYG @ NO27–21NYG
2018 · W4NO @ NYG33–18NO
2016 · W2NO @ NYG13–16NYG
2012 · W14NO @ NYG27–52NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–NO
NOQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
NYGQ1 13:401060Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 9:39680Touchdown7–7
NYGQ1 7:3636Punt7–7
NOQ1 5:27591Touchdown7–14
NYGQ1 2:241064Touchdown14–14
NOQ2 13:31580Touchdown14–21
NYGQ2 11:053-14Punt14–21
NOQ2 8:531575Touchdown14–28
NYGQ2 1:461260Touchdown21–28
NOQ2 0:0200End of half21–28
NYGQ3 15:00465Touchdown28–28
NOQ3 12:58970Touchdown28–35
NYGQ3 10:0944Turnover28–35
NOQ3 9:0232Turnover28–35
NYGQ3 7:26749Punt28–35
NOQ3 4:15980Touchdown28–42
NYGQ3 0:291452Touchdown35–42
NOQ4 12:1533Punt35–42
NYGQ4 10:31365Touchdown42–42
NOQ4 9:30637Opp touchdown49–42
NOQ4 7:111485Touchdown49–49
NYGQ4 0:3635Punt49–52
NOQ4 0:0500Field goal49–52

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning30/4135060

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashad Jennings10545.40
Orleans Darkwa4235.80
Andre Williams571.40
Shane Vereen231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.891303
Shane Vereen89601
Rueben Randle59550
Dwayne Harris37372
Rashad Jennings23310
Larry Donnell11220
Myles White1180
Will Tye2270

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees39/5050572

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram16805.00
C.J. Spiller4215.30
Khiry Robinson441.00
Drew Brees111.00
Brandin Cooks1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Benjamin Watson9101471
Marques Colston891141
Brandin Cooks68882
Willie Snead68702
Mark Ingram45390
C.J. Spiller24151
Brandon Coleman11140
Khiry Robinson22130
Josh Hill1250
Michael Hoomanawanui0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.3%

Expected total

47.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.59
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.08