Closing spread
NO -3
Total
51.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play+0.080
- 44.0%Success rate44.6%
- +0.106EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.078
- 8.0%Explosive rate10.0%
- -1.12CPOE+2.78
- 37.1%Third-down rate48.9%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
- 2.02Points / drive2.09
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 9–6 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.7 points. NO are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 30/41 | 350 | 6 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 10 | 54 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 8 | 9 | 130 | 3 |
| Shane Vereen | 8 | 9 | 60 | 1 |
| Rueben Randle | 5 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 3 | 7 | 37 | 2 |
| Rashad Jennings | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Larry Donnell | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Myles White | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Will Tye | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 39/50 | 505 | 7 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 16 | 80 | 5.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Khiry Robinson | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Watson | 9 | 10 | 147 | 1 |
| Marques Colston | 8 | 9 | 114 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 6 | 8 | 88 | 2 |
| Willie Snead | 6 | 8 | 70 | 2 |
| Mark Ingram | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 4 | 15 | 1 |
| Brandon Coleman | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Khiry Robinson | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
47.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.59
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.08