2016 · Week 2

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

13·16

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 80°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NYG -3.5

Total

54

Model margin

+2.5est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapGiants
  • +0.100EPA / play-0.074
  • 48.2%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.161EPA / dropback-0.035
  • -0.012EPA / rush-0.142
  • 9.6%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +4.38CPOE-1.63
  • 49.0%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 62.6%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 2.39Points / drive1.46
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 10–6 since 1999

NO have won 4 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. NYG are 6-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NO @ NYG34–27NO
2025 · W5NYG @ NO14–26NO
2024 · W14NO @ NYG14–11NO
2023 · W15NYG @ NO6–24NO
2021 · W4NYG @ NO27–21NYG
2018 · W4NO @ NYG33–18NO
2015 · W8NYG @ NO49–52NO
2012 · W14NO @ NYG27–52NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–NYG
NOQ1 15:00524Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:2236Punt0–0
NOQ1 11:033-4Punt0–0
NYGQ1 9:031557Turnover on downs0–0
NOQ1 2:4337Punt0–0
NYGQ1 1:19630Turnover0–0
NOQ2 14:1758Punt0–0
NYGQ2 11:42567Turnover0–0
NOQ2 9:19518Punt0–0
NYGQ2 7:0366Turnover0–0
NOQ2 4:06415Opp touchdown0–7
NOQ2 2:301059Field goal3–7
NYGQ2 0:0700End of half3–7
NYGQ3 15:00740Missed field goal3–7
NOQ3 11:11514Punt3–7
NYGQ3 8:441274Field goal3–10
NOQ3 2:46974Touchdown10–10
NYGQ4 13:451074Field goal10–13
NOQ4 8:46521Punt10–13
NYGQ4 7:2637Punt10–13
NOQ4 6:07852Field goal13–13
NYGQ4 2:54860Field goal13–16

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees29/4426310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram9303.30
Tim Hightower393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks79680
Michael Thomas45560
Willie Snead58541
Coby Fleener28290
Mark Ingram44170
Travaris Cadet23170
Brandon Coleman24150
Tommylee Lewis11-10

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning32/4136800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shane Vereen14423.00
Rashad Jennings13272.10
Orleans Darkwa1-1-1.00
Eli Manning4-4-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sterling Shepard881170
Victor Cruz48910
Odell Beckham Jr.811860
Shane Vereen33240
Larry Donnell45240
Rashad Jennings22130
Will Tye23100
Orleans Darkwa1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.9%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.81
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.55