Closing spread
NYG -3.5
Total
54
Model margin
+2.5est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play-0.074
- 48.2%Success rate40.8%
- +0.161EPA / dropback-0.035
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.142
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.3%
- +4.38CPOE-1.63
- 49.0%Third-down rate36.0%
- 62.6%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 2.39Points / drive1.46
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 9–6 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.7 points. NYG are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 29/44 | 263 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 7 | 9 | 68 | 0 |
| Michael Thomas | 4 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 5 | 8 | 54 | 1 |
| Coby Fleener | 2 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Brandon Coleman | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 32/41 | 368 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Vereen | 14 | 42 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 13 | 27 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Shepard | 8 | 8 | 117 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 4 | 8 | 91 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 8 | 11 | 86 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Larry Donnell | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Will Tye | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.81
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.55