Closing spread
OAK -6.5
Total
37
Model margin
+5.2est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 11–8 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. OAK are 9-8-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rick Mirer | 13/22 | 158 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 26 | 123 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Dwight Stone | 1 | 36 | 36.0 | 0 |
| Rick Mirer | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 5 | 9 | 72 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 2 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Eric Green | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| Bernie Parmalee | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
4.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.7%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.67
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.25
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.15
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.