Closing spread
OAK -6.5
Total
37
Model margin
+5.2est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 12–8 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. OAK are 10-8-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 13:41 | 10 | 60 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NYJ | Q1 8:19 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 6:13 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NYJ | Q1 4:39 | 10 | 78 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| LV | Q2 13:29 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–3 |
| NYJ | Q2 12:15 | 5 | 19 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| LV | Q2 10:08 | 1 | 4 | Turnover | 9–3 |
| NYJ | Q2 9:56 | 1 | 9 | Touchdown | 10–3 |
| LV | Q2 9:51 | 14 | 52 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| NYJ | Q2 4:17 | 5 | 38 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LV | Q2 1:50 | 7 | 35 | Punt | 10–3 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:39 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–3 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–3 |
| NYJ | Q3 13:59 | 8 | 89 | Touchdown | 17–3 |
| LV | Q3 9:49 | 4 | 29 | Turnover | 17–3 |
| NYJ | Q3 7:35 | 8 | 40 | Field goal | 20–3 |
| LV | Q3 3:28 | 7 | 72 | Touchdown | 20–10 |
| NYJ | Q3 0:29 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 20–10 |
| LV | Q4 13:24 | 11 | 83 | Touchdown | 20–17 |
| NYJ | Q4 8:23 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 20–17 |
| LV | Q4 6:02 | 3 | 17 | Turnover | 20–17 |
| NYJ | Q4 4:41 | 7 | 25 | Field goal | 23–17 |
| LV | Q4 1:55 | 11 | 90 | Touchdown | 23–24 |
| NYJ | Q4 0:26 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 23–24 |
| LV | Q4 0:11 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 23–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rick Mirer | 13/22 | 158 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 26 | 123 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Dwight Stone | 1 | 36 | 36.0 | 0 |
| Rick Mirer | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 5 | 9 | 72 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 2 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Eric Green | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| Bernie Parmalee | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
4.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.7%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.67
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.25
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.15
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.