Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 11–8 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. OAK are 9-8-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 27/42 | 265 | 2 | 1 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 4/5 | 46 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 2 | 34 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 15 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Zac Stacy | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 9 | 18 | 108 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 4 | 5 | 63 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 6 | 7 | 60 | 1 |
| Kenbrell Thompkins | 6 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Zac Stacy | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.70
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.79
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.