2015 · Week 8

Final

Jets

New York

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

20·34

Raiders

Oakland

QB Derek Carr

O.co Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NYJ -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

OAK perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

OAK lead 11–8 since 1999

RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. OAK are 9-8-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W10NYJ @ LV12–16RAIDERS
2020 · W13LV @ NYJ31–28RAIDERS
2019 · W12OAK @ NYJ3–34NYJ
2017 · W2NYJ @ OAK20–45RAIDERS
2014 · W1OAK @ NYJ14–19NYJ
2013 · W14OAK @ NYJ27–37NYJ
2011 · W3NYJ @ OAK24–34RAIDERS
2009 · W7NYJ @ OAK38–0NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–OAK
NYJQ1 15:001263Field goal3–0
LVQ1 7:161068Touchdown3–7
NYJQ1 1:5645Punt3–7
LVQ1 0:231076Touchdown3–14
NYJQ2 9:3737Punt3–14
LVQ2 7:52578Touchdown3–21
NYJQ2 5:1110Turnover3–21
LVQ2 5:02631Missed field goal3–21
NYJQ2 2:13743Field goal6–21
LVQ2 0:4000End of half6–21
LVQ3 15:00693Touchdown6–28
NYJQ3 11:06980Touchdown13–28
LVQ3 7:19431Field goal13–31
NYJQ3 5:45521Punt13–31
LVQ3 3:011075Field goal13–34
NYJQ4 12:491157Touchdown20–34
LVQ4 8:3730Punt20–34
NYJQ4 7:34727Turnover on downs20–34
LVQ4 5:3330Punt20–34
NYJQ4 4:4233Punt20–34
LVQ4 3:1931Punt20–34
NYJQ4 2:541160Turnover on downs20–34
LVQ4 0:2300End of half20–34

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith27/4226521
Ryan Fitzpatrick4/54600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Geno Smith23417.00
Chris Ivory15171.10
Ryan Fitzpatrick11212.00
Zac Stacy3113.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall9181080
Jeremy Kerley45630
Eric Decker67601
Kenbrell Thompkins67410
Chris Ivory35240
Jeff Cumberland1370
Zac Stacy1170
Kellen Davis1111

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.2%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.70
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.79

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.