Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+2.6est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Raidersedge mapJets
- -0.029EPA / play+0.126
- 43.1%Success rate48.4%
- +0.027EPA / dropback+0.338
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.038
- 7.7%Explosive rate10.9%
- +0.71CPOE+12.84
- 41.7%Third-down rate18.2%
- 75.0%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 2.44Points / drive2.08
- 3.1%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LV lead 11–8 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. NYJ are 8-9-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.40
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.62