Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
39
Model margin
+1.4est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutDarren McFaddenRBAnkle· DNP
- OutDenarius MooreWRShoulder· DNP
- OutJeremy StewartRBAnkle· DNP
- OutKaluka MaiavaLBRibs· DNP
- OutMike BrisielGAnkle· DNP
- OutTyvon BranchSAnkle· Limited
- OutUsama YoungSNeck· DNP
- QuestionableMiles BurrisLBToe· Limited
- QuestionableRashad JenningsRBConcussion· Limited
- ProbableJason HunterDEFoot· Full
- ProbableMenelik WatsonTIllness· Full
Jets
- QuestionableStephen HillWRKnee· Full
- ProbableAntonio CromartieCBHip· Limited
- ProbableKellen WinslowTEKnee· Limited
- ProbableSantonio HolmesWRFoot· Limited
- ProbableChris IvoryRBAnkle· Full
- ProbableDee MillinerCBWrist· Full
- ProbableGarrett McIntyreLBKnee· Full
- ProbableGeno SmithQBright Wrist· Full
- ProbableGreg SalasWRFinger· Full
- ProbableJeremy KerleyWRElbow· Full
- ProbableKenrick EllisDTBack· Full
- ProbableMuhammad WilkersonDEWrist· Full
- ProbableNick MangoldCWrist· Full
- ProbableWillie ColonGCalf· Full
Win probability
- Jets
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 11–8 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. NYJ are 8-9-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 57 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 11:13 | 5 | 31 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NYJ | Q1 7:44 | 5 | 13 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 5:58 | 3 | 3 | Missed field goal | 0–3 |
| NYJ | Q1 4:49 | 3 | 58 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| LV | Q1 3:17 | 14 | 53 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| NYJ | Q2 12:31 | 9 | 30 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LV | Q2 7:30 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| NYJ | Q2 5:54 | 3 | -1 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| LV | Q2 5:03 | 4 | 3 | Opp touchdown | 3–20 |
| LV | Q2 3:55 | 4 | 45 | Punt | 3–20 |
| NYJ | Q2 1:53 | 3 | 16 | End of half | 3–20 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 79 | Touchdown | 10–20 |
| NYJ | Q3 13:58 | 10 | 57 | Touchdown | 10–27 |
| LV | Q3 9:15 | 6 | 72 | Touchdown | 17–27 |
| NYJ | Q3 6:18 | 8 | 42 | Field goal | 17–30 |
| LV | Q3 2:47 | 8 | 52 | Field goal | 20–30 |
| NYJ | Q4 13:21 | 7 | 68 | Touchdown | 20–37 |
| LV | Q4 8:58 | 18 | 52 | Touchdown | 27–37 |
| NYJ | Q4 2:24 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 27–37 |
| LV | Q4 0:25 | 2 | -10 | End of half | 27–37 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 16/25 | 219 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 18 | 76 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Geno Smith | 5 | 50 | 10.0 | 1 |
| Bilal Powell | 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Winslow | 3 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 3 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 4 | 7 | 41 | 1 |
| David Nelson | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.38
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.