Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
39
Model margin
+1.4est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 11–8 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. NYJ are 8-9-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 16/25 | 219 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 18 | 76 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Geno Smith | 5 | 50 | 10.0 | 1 |
| Bilal Powell | 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Winslow | 3 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 3 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 4 | 7 | 41 | 1 |
| David Nelson | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.38
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.