Closing spread
OAK -14
Total
44
Model margin
+3.9est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 11–8 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. OAK are 9-8-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 16/24 | 166 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 9 | 53 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Elijah McGuire | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Kearse | 4 | 5 | 64 | 2 |
| Matt Forte | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Neal Sterling | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Elijah McGuire | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Will Tye | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Charone Peake | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.14
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.88
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.