Closing spread
OAK -3.5
Total
45
Model margin
+0.6est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 11–8 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. NYJ are 8-9-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 20/29 | 315 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Bilal Powell | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Josh Adams | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Chosen | 4 | 5 | 86 | 1 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 1 | 69 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 5 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Vyncint Smith | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 3 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.19
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.55
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.