Closing spread
OAK -3.5
Total
45
Model margin
+0.6est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutDavid SharpeTCalf· DNP
- QuestionableLamarcus JoynerSHamstring· Limited
- LimitedJosh JacobsRBShoulder
- LimitedRodney HudsonCAnkle
- LimitedTrenton BrownTKnee
Jets
- OutC.J. MosleyLBGroin· DNP
- DoubtfulDarryl RobertsCBCalf· DNP
- DoubtfulMatthias FarleySQuadricep· DNP
- DoubtfulPaul WorrilowLBQuadricep· DNP
- QuestionableAlex LewisGElbow· Limited
- QuestionableBrandon CopelandLBHip· Limited
- QuestionableChuma EdogaTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableDemaryius ThomasWRHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableHenry AndersonDEShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableKelvin BeachumTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableNeville HewittLBNeck· Limited
- QuestionableSteve McLendonDTNeck· Limited
Win probability
- Jets
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 12–8 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. NYJ are 8-10-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 46 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 9:56 | 10 | 79 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| LV | Q1 5:02 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 3–3 |
| NYJ | Q1 2:56 | 13 | 91 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| LV | Q2 10:44 | 7 | 50 | Missed field goal | 3–10 |
| NYJ | Q2 7:13 | 9 | 50 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| LV | Q2 3:12 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–13 |
| NYJ | Q2 1:49 | 4 | 5 | Missed field goal | 3–13 |
| LV | Q2 0:40 | 2 | 7 | Punt | 3–13 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:07 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–13 |
| NYJ | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 81 | Touchdown | 3–20 |
| LV | Q3 12:58 | 8 | 33 | Turnover on downs | 3–20 |
| NYJ | Q3 8:40 | 4 | 39 | Touchdown | 3–27 |
| LV | Q3 6:39 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 3–34 |
| LV | Q3 6:25 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 3–34 |
| NYJ | Q3 3:19 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–34 |
| LV | Q3 1:49 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–34 |
| LV | Q3 1:13 | 2 | 2 | Punt | 3–34 |
| LV | Q3 0:00 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 3–34 |
| LV | Q4 15:00 | 1 | 9 | Punt | 3–34 |
| LV | Q4 14:19 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 3–34 |
| NYJ | Q4 14:12 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–34 |
| LV | Q4 13:18 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 3–34 |
| NYJ | Q4 11:32 | 8 | 45 | Punt | 3–34 |
| LV | Q4 6:22 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 3–34 |
| NYJ | Q4 3:28 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 3–34 |
| LV | Q4 0:58 | 2 | -1 | End of half | 3–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 20/29 | 315 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Bilal Powell | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Josh Adams | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Chosen | 4 | 5 | 86 | 1 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 1 | 69 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 5 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Vyncint Smith | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 3 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.19
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.55
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.