Closing spread
NYJ -6.5
Total
41
Model margin
+1.6est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutChimdi ChekwaCBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableNick RoachLBConcussion· Limited
- ProbableLaMarr WoodleyDENot Injury Related· DNP
- ProbableDavid AusberryTEKnee· Full
- ProbableMatt SchaubQBright Elbow· Full
- ProbableMenelik WatsonTHip· Full
- ProbableSebastian JanikowskiKright Quadricep· Full
- ProbableTaiwan JonesCBKnee· Full
Jets
- OutDee MillinerCBAnkle· DNP
- OutIK EnemkpaliDEFoot· DNP
- OutJosh BushSQuadricep· DNP
- ProbableAntonio AllenSConcussion· Full
- ProbableNick BelloreLBCalf· Full
Win probability
- Jets
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 11–8 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. NYJ are 8-9-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 58 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 9:16 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NYJ | Q1 6:30 | 2 | 4 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 6:00 | 6 | 28 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| NYJ | Q1 2:43 | 12 | 86 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| LV | Q2 11:04 | 9 | 42 | Punt | 7–3 |
| NYJ | Q2 7:15 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LV | Q2 5:51 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–3 |
| NYJ | Q2 4:31 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| LV | Q2 0:30 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–10 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 7–10 |
| NYJ | Q3 12:53 | 8 | 28 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LV | Q3 9:06 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 7–10 |
| NYJ | Q3 7:24 | 8 | 43 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| LV | Q3 2:38 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 7–13 |
| NYJ | Q3 0:29 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–13 |
| LV | Q4 13:41 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–13 |
| NYJ | Q4 12:43 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 7–13 |
| LV | Q4 9:50 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–19 |
| NYJ | Q4 8:16 | 1 | 71 | Touchdown | 7–19 |
| LV | Q4 8:03 | 8 | 2 | Punt | 7–19 |
| NYJ | Q4 4:23 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–19 |
| LV | Q4 2:39 | 6 | 73 | Touchdown | 14–19 |
| NYJ | Q4 1:21 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 23/28 | 221 | 1 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 10 | 102 | 10.2 | 1 |
| Chris Johnson | 13 | 68 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 5 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 5 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 5 | 5 | 23 | 1 |
| David Nelson | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Greg Salas | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Jace Amaro | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
4.63%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.58
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.