Closing spread
NYJ -6.5
Total
41
Model margin
+1.6est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 11–8 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. NYJ are 8-9-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 23/28 | 221 | 1 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 10 | 102 | 10.2 | 1 |
| Chris Johnson | 13 | 68 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 5 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 5 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 5 | 5 | 23 | 1 |
| David Nelson | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Greg Salas | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Jace Amaro | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
4.63%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.58
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.