2020 · Week 13

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

31·28

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 39°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

LV -7.5

Total

48

Model margin

+0.7est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapJets
  • +0.066EPA / play-0.116
  • 47.4%Success rate40.9%
  • +0.155EPA / dropback-0.098
  • -0.067EPA / rush-0.146
  • 10.3%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +2.18CPOE-2.07
  • 45.5%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 59.9%Red-zone TD rate41.2%
  • 2.49Points / drive1.24
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LV lead 11–8 since 1999

RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. NYJ are 8-9-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W10NYJ @ LV12–16RAIDERS
2019 · W12OAK @ NYJ3–34NYJ
2017 · W2NYJ @ OAK20–45RAIDERS
2015 · W8NYJ @ OAK20–34RAIDERS
2014 · W1OAK @ NYJ14–19NYJ
2013 · W14OAK @ NYJ27–37NYJ
2011 · W3NYJ @ OAK24–34RAIDERS
2009 · W7NYJ @ OAK38–0NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:001274Touchdown0–7
LVQ1 9:03743Turnover0–7
NYJQ1 5:1530Punt0–7
LVQ1 4:11874Touchdown7–7
NYJQ1 0:12769Touchdown7–13
LVQ2 12:02835Punt7–13
NYJQ2 8:23322Turnover7–13
LVQ2 6:5831Field goal10–13
NYJQ2 6:07532Turnover10–13
LVQ2 3:06566Touchdown17–13
NYJQ2 1:12540Turnover17–13
LVQ2 0:2845End of half17–13
LVQ3 15:001375Touchdown24–13
NYJQ3 7:5235Punt24–13
LVQ3 5:5735Punt24–13
NYJQ3 4:1934Punt24–13
LVQ3 1:5435Punt24–13
NYJQ3 0:221096Touchdown24–21
LVQ4 10:22314Turnover24–21
NYJQ4 8:45629Touchdown24–28
LVQ4 5:341756Turnover on downs24–28
NYJQ4 1:3735Punt24–28
LVQ4 0:35361Touchdown31–28
NYJQ4 0:0510End of half31–28

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr28/4738131

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devontae Booker16503.10
Jalen Richard4112.80
Theo Riddick362.00
Derek Carr252.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darren Waller13172002
Henry Ruggs III34841
Hunter Renfrow46470
Nelson Agholor411380
Jalen Richard1160
Theo Riddick1130
Devontae Booker1210
Jason Witten0100
Zay Jones0100
Bryan Edwards0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold14/2318621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ty Johnson221044.71
Josh Adams8749.30
Sam Darnold3268.71
Frank Gore122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jamison Crowder57472
Denzel Mims23400
Braxton Berrios22330
Ryan Griffin22310
Breshad Perriman14220
Ty Johnson22130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

4.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.1%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.97
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.74