Closing spread
LV -7.5
Total
48
Model margin
+0.7est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.066EPA / play-0.116
- 47.4%Success rate40.9%
- +0.155EPA / dropback-0.098
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.146
- 10.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- +2.18CPOE-2.07
- 45.5%Third-down rate34.4%
- 59.9%Red-zone TD rate41.2%
- 2.49Points / drive1.24
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LV lead 11–8 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. NYJ are 8-9-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 28/47 | 381 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devontae Booker | 16 | 50 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jalen Richard | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | 13 | 17 | 200 | 2 |
| Henry Ruggs III | 3 | 4 | 84 | 1 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 4 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 4 | 11 | 38 | 0 |
| Jalen Richard | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Edwards | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 14/23 | 186 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Johnson | 22 | 104 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Josh Adams | 8 | 74 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamison Crowder | 5 | 7 | 47 | 2 |
| Denzel Mims | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
4.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.97
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.74