2023 · Week 10

Final

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

12·16

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Aidan O'Connell

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

NYJ -1

Total

35.5

Model margin

+2.9est.

LV perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapRaiders
  • -0.230EPA / play-0.086
  • 35.6%Success rate41.5%
  • -0.250EPA / dropback-0.045
  • -0.191EPA / rush-0.151
  • 6.2%Explosive rate5.9%
  • -5.18CPOE-3.79
  • 25.5%Third-down rate35.2%
  • 39.2%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
  • 1.01Points / drive1.66
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LV lead 12–8 since 1999

RAIDERS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. LV are 10-8-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8LV @ NYJ38–33RAIDERS
2020 · W13LV @ NYJ31–28RAIDERS
2019 · W12OAK @ NYJ3–34NYJ
2017 · W2NYJ @ OAK20–45RAIDERS
2015 · W8NYJ @ OAK20–34RAIDERS
2014 · W1OAK @ NYJ14–19NYJ
2013 · W14OAK @ NYJ27–37NYJ
2011 · W3NYJ @ OAK24–34RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–LV
LVQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
NYJQ1 13:26759Field goal3–0
LVQ1 10:13663Field goal3–3
NYJQ1 6:15950Field goal6–3
LVQ1 1:1120Turnover6–3
NYJQ1 0:27834Field goal9–3
LVQ2 11:4831Punt9–3
NYJQ2 10:16419Punt9–3
LVQ2 7:181135Punt9–3
NYJQ2 1:52634Punt9–3
LVQ2 0:52729Field goal9–6
NYJQ3 15:00517Punt9–6
LVQ3 12:5646Punt9–6
NYJQ3 10:45312Punt9–6
LVQ3 8:481023Field goal9–9
NYJQ3 2:3630Punt9–9
LVQ3 0:46553Touchdown9–16
NYJQ4 14:10548Field goal12–16
LVQ4 11:581050Turnover12–16
NYJQ4 6:061156Turnover12–16
LVQ4 1:1435Punt12–16
NYJQ4 0:53536End of half12–16

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Wilson23/3926301
Garrett Wilson0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zach Wilson45413.50
Breece Hall13282.20
Dalvin Cook4266.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Wilson914930
Tyler Conklin77700
Breece Hall33470
Xavier Gipson13240
Allen Lazard15170
C.J. Uzomah1160
Malik Taylor1260
Dalvin Cook0100
Michael Carter0100

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aidan O'Connell16/2715311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs271164.30
DeAndre Carter11515.00
Tre Tucker199.00
Zamir White155.00
Aidan O'Connell231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams613860
Jakobi Meyers22210
Michael Mayer35191
Josh Jacobs22110
Austin Hooper1170
Hunter Renfrow1150
Ameer Abdullah1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.8%

Expected total

40.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.10
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.88