Closing spread
NYJ -1
Total
35.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
LV perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.230EPA / play-0.086
- 35.6%Success rate41.5%
- -0.250EPA / dropback-0.045
- -0.191EPA / rush-0.151
- 6.2%Explosive rate5.9%
- -5.18CPOE-3.79
- 25.5%Third-down rate35.2%
- 39.2%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.01Points / drive1.66
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LV lead 11–8 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. LV are 9-8-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 23/39 | 263 | 0 | 1 |
| Garrett Wilson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 4 | 54 | 13.5 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 13 | 28 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 9 | 14 | 93 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 7 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Xavier Gipson | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Malik Taylor | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan O'Connell | 16/27 | 153 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 27 | 116 | 4.3 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Aidan O'Connell | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 6 | 13 | 86 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer | 3 | 5 | 19 | 1 |
| Josh Jacobs | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.8%
Expected total
40.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.10
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.88