Closing spread
MIN -7
Total
48.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play+0.042
- 41.7%Success rate44.6%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.128
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.092
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.9%
- 34.4%Third-down rate44.4%
- 42.7%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 1.14Points / drive1.72
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.4%
- +0.079EPA / play allowed-0.008
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 8–4 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. MIN are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 14/31 | 188 | 0 | 2 |
| Steve Stenstrom | 4/4 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Lawrence Phillips | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lawrence Phillips | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Jerry Rice | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Mark Harris | 1 | 1 | 33 | 0 |
| Greg Clark | 3 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 2 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Tony Cline | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff George | 15/28 | 250 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leroy Hoard | 17 | 105 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Moe Williams | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| David Palmer | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hatchette | 2 | 2 | 88 | 1 |
| Cris Carter | 7 | 9 | 84 | 1 |
| Jake Reed | 3 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Andrew Jordan | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| Andrew Glover | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.82
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.39