1999 · Week 7

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jeff Garcia

16·40

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Jeff George

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

MIN -7

Total

48.5

Model margin

+4.4est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapVikings
  • -0.036EPA / play+0.042
  • 41.7%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.026EPA / dropback+0.128
  • -0.054EPA / rush-0.092
  • 8.5%Explosive rate10.9%
  • 34.4%Third-down rate44.4%
  • 42.7%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 1.14Points / drive1.72
  • 2.8%Turnover rate3.4%
  • +0.079EPA / play allowed-0.008

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 8–4 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. MIN are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2SF @ MIN17–23MIN
2023 · W7SF @ MIN17–22MIN
2021 · W12MIN @ SF26–34SF
2019 · playoffsMIN @ SF10–27SF
2018 · W1SF @ MIN16–24MIN
2015 · W1MIN @ SF3–20SF
2012 · W3SF @ MIN13–24MIN
2009 · W3SF @ MIN24–27MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–MIN
MINQ1 15:00867Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 10:301376Field goal3–7
MINQ1 2:55831Opp touchdown9–7
SFQ2 14:4200Opp touchdown10–7
MINQ2 14:42180Touchdown10–14
SFQ2 14:25418Turnover10–14
MINQ2 11:16418Missed field goal10–14
SFQ2 9:40450Field goal13–14
MINQ2 7:38763Turnover13–14
SFQ2 4:2831Punt13–14
MINQ2 3:33718Touchdown13–21
SFQ2 1:06414Turnover13–24
MINQ2 0:0300Field goal13–24
SFQ3 15:001472Field goal16–24
MINQ3 8:021180Touchdown16–31
SFQ3 2:543-15Punt16–31
MINQ3 0:41718Touchdown16–38
SFQ4 12:05631Punt16–38
MINQ4 9:5935Punt16–38
SFQ4 8:5636Safety16–40
MINQ4 7:2034Punt16–40
SFQ4 5:2757Punt16–40
MINQ4 3:02514End of half16–40

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Garcia14/3118802
Steve Stenstrom4/41300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeff Garcia5357.00
Charlie Garner10272.70
Lawrence Phillips100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lawrence Phillips34490
Jerry Rice57450
Mark Harris11330
Greg Clark38270
J.J. Stokes27270
Charlie Garner25130
Tony Cline1130

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff George15/2825031

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leroy Hoard171056.21
Moe Williams6254.21
Randy Moss11111.00
David Palmer273.50
Daunte Culpepper362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Matt Hatchette22881
Cris Carter79841
Jake Reed36420
Randy Moss14240
Andrew Jordan1171
Andrew Glover1350
Moe Williams0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

4.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.8%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.82
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.39