Closing spread
SF -6.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.105EPA / play+0.011
- 47.9%Success rate42.1%
- +0.170EPA / dropback+0.030
- +0.029EPA / rush-0.013
- 12.9%Explosive rate9.7%
- +5.02CPOE-2.66
- 35.1%Third-down rate37.4%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 1.92Points / drive1.91
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 8–4 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. MIN are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 24/35 | 204 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Manningham | 5 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 5 | 8 | 53 | 1 |
| Michael Crabtree | 6 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 21/35 | 198 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 25 | 86 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Christian Ponder | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Toby Gerhart | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 9 | 11 | 89 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 5 | 7 | 36 | 2 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Burton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.77%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.15
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.22
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.56