2012 · Week 3

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

13·24

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

Mall of America Field · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

SF -6.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapVikings
  • +0.105EPA / play+0.011
  • 47.9%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.170EPA / dropback+0.030
  • +0.029EPA / rush-0.013
  • 12.9%Explosive rate9.7%
  • +5.02CPOE-2.66
  • 35.1%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 54.7%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 1.92Points / drive1.91
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 8–4 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. MIN are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2SF @ MIN17–23MIN
2023 · W7SF @ MIN17–22MIN
2021 · W12MIN @ SF26–34SF
2019 · playoffsMIN @ SF10–27SF
2018 · W1SF @ MIN16–24MIN
2015 · W1MIN @ SF3–20SF
2009 · W3SF @ MIN24–27MIN
2007 · W14MIN @ SF27–7MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–MIN
MINQ1 15:001667Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 7:20616Punt0–7
MINQ1 4:47526Punt0–7
SFQ1 2:531254Field goal3–7
MINQ2 12:131180Touchdown3–14
SFQ2 5:291151Missed field goal3–14
MINQ2 0:52833Field goal3–17
SFQ3 15:0038Field goal6–17
MINQ3 12:4638Punt6–17
SFQ3 11:17986Touchdown13–17
MINQ3 6:171563Touchdown13–24
SFQ4 14:1717Turnover13–24
MINQ4 14:0438Punt13–24
SFQ4 13:09725Punt13–24
MINQ4 9:02525Punt13–24
SFQ4 7:1234Punt13–24
MINQ4 6:28735Turnover13–24
SFQ4 3:29414Turnover13–24
MINQ4 2:1834Turnover13–24
SFQ4 1:46215Turnover13–24
MINQ4 1:3300End of half13–24

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith24/3520411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore12635.30
Alex Smith4266.50
Kendall Hunter400.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mario Manningham55560
Vernon Davis58531
Michael Crabtree68400
Randy Moss36270
Kyle Williams23160
Frank Gore1290
Kendall Hunter1120
Delanie Walker1210

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Christian Ponder21/3519820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson25863.40
Christian Ponder7334.71
Toby Gerhart8182.30
Percy Harvin199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin911890
Kyle Rudolph57362
Devin Aromashodu22240
Adrian Peterson24210
Toby Gerhart24200
Michael Jenkins1580
John Carlson0100
Stephen Burton0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.54.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.77%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.3%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.15
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.22
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.56