Closing spread
MIN -2.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.022EPA / play-0.091
- 40.7%Success rate38.8%
- +0.050EPA / dropback-0.060
- -0.013EPA / rush-0.150
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- +2.87CPOE-3.50
- 39.2%Third-down rate30.2%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 1.94Points / drive1.32
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 8–4 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. SF are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 23/32 | 231 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 6 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 5 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Charles D. Johnson | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 17/26 | 165 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 26 | 168 | 6.5 | 2 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Jarryd Hayne | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 3 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jarryd Hayne | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.4%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.49
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.11