2015 · Week 1

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Teddy Bridgewater

3·20

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

MIN -2.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+0.1est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge map49ers
  • +0.022EPA / play-0.091
  • 40.7%Success rate38.8%
  • +0.050EPA / dropback-0.060
  • -0.013EPA / rush-0.150
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +2.87CPOE-3.50
  • 39.2%Third-down rate30.2%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 1.94Points / drive1.32
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 8–4 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. SF are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2SF @ MIN17–23MIN
2023 · W7SF @ MIN17–22MIN
2021 · W12MIN @ SF26–34SF
2019 · playoffsMIN @ SF10–27SF
2018 · W1SF @ MIN16–24MIN
2012 · W3SF @ MIN13–24MIN
2009 · W3SF @ MIN24–27MIN
2007 · W14MIN @ SF27–7MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–SF
SFQ1 15:001270Missed field goal0–0
MINQ1 9:1930Missed field goal0–0
SFQ1 8:57620Punt0–0
MINQ1 5:303-9Punt0–0
MINQ1 3:24528Turnover on downs0–0
SFQ1 0:5931Punt0–0
MINQ2 14:45619Punt0–0
SFQ2 10:26520Punt0–0
MINQ2 8:48518Punt0–0
SFQ2 5:451193Touchdown0–7
MINQ2 0:47557End of half0–7
MINQ3 15:00828Punt0–7
SFQ3 10:141363Field goal0–10
MINQ3 4:321066Field goal3–10
SFQ4 14:431190Touchdown3–17
MINQ4 9:30313Turnover3–17
SFQ4 8:22423Field goal3–20
MINQ4 6:08728Turnover on downs3–20
SFQ4 2:55317End of half3–20

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater23/3223101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson10313.10
Jerick McKinnon3206.70
Teddy Bridgewater3165.30
Matt Asiata144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace67630
Kyle Rudolph57530
Matt Asiata22280
Jarius Wright14270
Charles D. Johnson23270
Adrian Peterson33210
Jerick McKinnon2280
Rhett Ellison1230
Cordarrelle Patterson1110

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick17/2616500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde261686.52
Colin Kaepernick7415.90
Jarryd Hayne4133.30
Reggie Bush284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vernon Davis36470
Garrett Celek34400
Anquan Boldin45360
Carlos Hyde22140
Torrey Smith13110
Jarryd Hayne1170
Vance McDonald1150
Bruce Ellington2250
Reggie Bush0100
Quinton Patton0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.4%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.49
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.11