Closing spread
MIN -7
Total
39
Model margin
+3.5est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.067EPA / play+0.085
- 37.0%Success rate45.1%
- -0.055EPA / dropback+0.239
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.130
- 8.1%Explosive rate10.4%
- -2.69CPOE+5.77
- 29.4%Third-down rate45.4%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate68.8%
- 1.54Points / drive2.31
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 8–4 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. MIN are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 15/25 | 195 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glen Coffee | 25 | 54 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 7 | 10 | 96 | 2 |
| Josh Morgan | 4 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Isaac Bruce | 2 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Glen Coffee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 24/46 | 301 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 19 | 85 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 7 | 8 | 70 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 4 | 9 | 56 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 4 | 7 | 56 | 1 |
| Percy Harvin | 4 | 9 | 51 | 0 |
| Greg Lewis | 1 | 1 | 32 | 1 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.96
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.09
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.54