2009 · Week 3

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Shaun Hill

24·27

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brett Favre

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

MIN -7

Total

39

Model margin

+3.5est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapVikings
  • -0.067EPA / play+0.085
  • 37.0%Success rate45.1%
  • -0.055EPA / dropback+0.239
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.130
  • 8.1%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -2.69CPOE+5.77
  • 29.4%Third-down rate45.4%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate68.8%
  • 1.54Points / drive2.31
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 8–4 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. MIN are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2SF @ MIN17–23MIN
2023 · W7SF @ MIN17–22MIN
2021 · W12MIN @ SF26–34SF
2019 · playoffsMIN @ SF10–27SF
2018 · W1SF @ MIN16–24MIN
2015 · W1MIN @ SF3–20SF
2012 · W3SF @ MIN13–24MIN
2007 · W14MIN @ SF27–7MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–MIN
SFQ1 15:003-6Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:2331Punt0–0
SFQ1 12:2539Punt0–0
MINQ1 11:14783Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 8:3838Punt0–7
MINQ1 7:00937Punt0–7
SFQ1 0:5235Punt0–7
MINQ2 15:00612Field goal0–10
SFQ2 13:09746Touchdown7–10
MINQ2 9:263-5Punt7–10
SFQ2 7:102-2Turnover7–10
MINQ2 6:1979Field goal7–13
SFQ2 3:26414Punt7–13
MINQ2 1:531064Opp touchdown14–13
MINQ3 15:0030Punt14–13
SFQ3 12:2238Punt14–13
MINQ3 10:2137Turnover14–13
SFQ3 9:24742Field goal17–19
MINQ3 4:4700Touchdown17–20
SFQ3 4:34425Punt17–20
MINQ3 2:06755Punt17–20
SFQ4 12:49690Touchdown24–20
MINQ4 8:1234Punt24–20
SFQ4 5:4731Punt24–20
MINQ4 3:26630Turnover on downs24–20
SFQ4 1:4936Punt24–20
MINQ4 1:29880Touchdown24–27
SFQ4 0:0210End of half24–27

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shaun Hill15/2519521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Glen Coffee25542.20
Frank Gore144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vernon Davis710962
Josh Morgan44470
Isaac Bruce25380
Frank Gore0100
Delanie Walker0100
Glen Coffee0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre24/4630121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson19854.50
Chester Taylor6162.70
Brett Favre111.00
Percy Harvin1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chester Taylor78700
Bernard Berrian49560
Sidney Rice47561
Percy Harvin49510
Greg Lewis11321
Visanthe Shiancoe25220
Adrian Peterson22140
Jimmy Kleinsasser0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

4.84%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.5%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.96
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.09
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.54