Closing spread
SF -7
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
SF perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.056EPA / play+0.077
- 42.1%Success rate44.8%
- +0.177EPA / dropback+0.194
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.061
- 10.7%Explosive rate12.1%
- +3.53CPOE+2.34
- 44.0%Third-down rate45.8%
- 66.9%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
- 2.31Points / drive2.28
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 8–4 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. SF are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 21/29 | 172 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 9 | 18 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 2 | 5 | 57 | 1 |
| Adam Thielen | 5 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 6 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 11/19 | 131 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 22 | 105 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Raheem Mostert | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 5 | 40 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
4.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.12
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.42