2019 · DIV

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

10·27

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

SF -7

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.4est.

SF perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge map49ers
  • +0.056EPA / play+0.077
  • 42.1%Success rate44.8%
  • +0.177EPA / dropback+0.194
  • -0.082EPA / rush-0.061
  • 10.7%Explosive rate12.1%
  • +3.53CPOE+2.34
  • 44.0%Third-down rate45.8%
  • 66.9%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
  • 2.31Points / drive2.28
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 8–4 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. SF are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2SF @ MIN17–23MIN
2023 · W7SF @ MIN17–22MIN
2021 · W12MIN @ SF26–34SF
2018 · W1SF @ MIN16–24MIN
2015 · W1MIN @ SF3–20SF
2012 · W3SF @ MIN13–24MIN
2009 · W3SF @ MIN24–27MIN
2007 · W14MIN @ SF27–7MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–SF
MINQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:41861Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 9:30871Touchdown7–7
SFQ1 5:231030Punt7–7
MINQ2 14:523-2Punt7–7
SFQ2 12:451058Touchdown7–14
MINQ2 7:1034Punt7–14
SFQ2 4:45411Turnover7–14
MINQ2 2:4158Field goal10–14
SFQ2 0:3100End of half10–14
SFQ3 15:00846Field goal10–17
MINQ3 10:4231Turnover10–17
SFQ3 9:49844Touchdown10–24
MINQ3 4:5436Punt10–24
SFQ3 3:2639Punt10–24
SFQ3 1:0537Field goal10–27
MINQ4 14:133-5Punt10–27
SFQ4 12:4236Punt10–27
MINQ4 11:003-4Punt10–27
SFQ4 8:59528Punt10–27
MINQ4 4:32740Turnover on downs10–27
SFQ4 2:29410Turnover10–27
MINQ4 1:45526Turnover on downs10–27
SFQ4 0:1600End of half10–27

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins21/2917211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook9182.00
Alexander Mattison133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs25571
Adam Thielen57500
Irv Smith33390
Dalvin Cook6880
Ameer Abdullah1170
Tyler Conklin1150
Kyle Rudolph2340

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo11/1913111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman221054.82
Raheem Mostert12584.80
Matt Breida8172.10
Deebo Samuel Sr.166.00
Jimmy Garoppolo400.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.36420
Kendrick Bourne35401
Emmanuel Sanders22330
George Kittle35160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

4.73%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.6%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.12
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+2.42