Closing spread
MIN -6
Total
46.5
Model margin
+5.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play-0.075
- 44.8%Success rate43.2%
- +0.054EPA / dropback-0.011
- -0.135EPA / rush-0.203
- 11.4%Explosive rate8.0%
- -2.68CPOE+2.40
- 37.2%Third-down rate36.2%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
- 1.66Points / drive1.57
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 8–4 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. MIN are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 15/33 | 261 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Breida | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 12 | 38 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 5 | 9 | 90 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 2 | 5 | 61 | 1 |
| Trent Taylor | 4 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 2 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 20/36 | 244 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 16 | 40 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 6 | 12 | 102 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 6 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 3 | 6 | 43 | 1 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| David Morgan | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.5%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.72
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.43