2018 · Week 1

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

16·24

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -6

Total

46.5

Model margin

+5.4est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapVikings
  • -0.019EPA / play-0.075
  • 44.8%Success rate43.2%
  • +0.054EPA / dropback-0.011
  • -0.135EPA / rush-0.203
  • 11.4%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -2.68CPOE+2.40
  • 37.2%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
  • 1.66Points / drive1.57
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 8–4 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. MIN are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2SF @ MIN17–23MIN
2023 · W7SF @ MIN17–22MIN
2021 · W12MIN @ SF26–34SF
2019 · playoffsMIN @ SF10–27SF
2015 · W1MIN @ SF3–20SF
2012 · W3SF @ MIN13–24MIN
2009 · W3SF @ MIN24–27MIN
2007 · W14MIN @ SF27–7MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–MIN
MINQ1 15:00937Punt0–0
SFQ1 9:28613Punt0–0
MINQ1 7:17640Field goal0–3
SFQ1 3:5645Punt0–3
MINQ1 1:11653Touchdown0–10
SFQ2 13:39736Field goal3–10
MINQ2 11:42338Turnover3–10
SFQ2 10:221573Turnover3–10
MINQ2 2:181250End of half3–10
SFQ3 15:0031Punt3–10
MINQ3 14:15510Punt3–10
SFQ3 11:1632Opp touchdown3–17
SFQ3 10:41460Field goal6–17
MINQ3 9:15980Touchdown6–24
SFQ3 4:22775Touchdown13–24
MINQ3 0:3132Punt13–24
SFQ4 14:4310Turnover13–24
MINQ4 14:373-1Punt13–24
SFQ4 13:431167Field goal16–24
MINQ4 8:0931Punt16–24
SFQ4 7:093-5Punt16–24
MINQ4 5:46827Punt16–24
SFQ4 1:4920Turnover16–24
MINQ4 1:3546Turnover on downs16–24

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo15/3326113

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Breida11464.20
Alfred Morris12383.20
Jimmy Garoppolo263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle59900
Dante Pettis25611
Trent Taylor46280
Pierre Garcon26210
Matt Breida1250
Marquise Goodwin0100
Kendrick Bourne0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins20/3624420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray11423.80
Dalvin Cook16402.50
Kirk Cousins4266.50
Stefon Diggs188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen6121020
Dalvin Cook67550
Stefon Diggs36431
Laquon Treadwell24180
Kyle Rudolph12111
David Morgan1190
Tyler Conklin1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.5%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.72
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.43