2021 · Week 12

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

26·34

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

SF -3.5

Total

49

Model margin

+2.8est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge map49ers
  • +0.018EPA / play+0.085
  • 41.6%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.102EPA / dropback+0.174
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.024
  • 10.3%Explosive rate10.9%
  • +0.82CPOE+1.73
  • 36.6%Third-down rate40.6%
  • 67.7%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
  • 2.13Points / drive2.30
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 8–4 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. SF are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2SF @ MIN17–23MIN
2023 · W7SF @ MIN17–22MIN
2019 · playoffsMIN @ SF10–27SF
2018 · W1SF @ MIN16–24MIN
2015 · W1MIN @ SF3–20SF
2012 · W3SF @ MIN13–24MIN
2009 · W3SF @ MIN24–27MIN
2007 · W14MIN @ SF27–7MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–SF
MINQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
SFQ1 14:10628Turnover0–0
MINQ1 12:00849Touchdown7–0
SFQ1 8:27675Touchdown7–7
MINQ1 5:3138Punt7–7
SFQ1 3:1544Punt7–7
MINQ1 0:32680Touchdown14–7
SFQ2 12:4237Punt14–7
MINQ2 11:10511Punt14–7
SFQ2 8:381787Touchdown14–14
MINQ2 0:18214End of half14–14
SFQ3 15:00685Touchdown14–21
MINQ3 11:3110Turnover14–27
SFQ3 11:1312Touchdown14–28
MINQ3 11:09575Touchdown20–28
SFQ3 8:28647Field goal26–31
MINQ3 4:5800Touchdown26–31
SFQ3 4:46518Punt26–31
MINQ3 1:371-8Turnover26–31
SFQ3 1:3035Field goal26–34
MINQ3 0:091460Turnover on downs26–34
SFQ4 9:041167Missed field goal26–34
MINQ4 1:56630Turnover on downs26–34
SFQ4 0:4500End of half26–34

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins20/3223821
Justin Jefferson1/12400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook10393.90
Alexander Mattison7213.01
Kene Nwangwu177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson49830
Dalvin Cook67640
Adam Thielen57622
Tyler Conklin23250
Alexander Mattison2370
K.J. Osborn1250

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo17/2623011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Elijah Mitchell271334.91
Deebo Samuel Sr.66611.02
Jeff Wilson252.50
Brandon Aiyuk144.00
Jimmy Garoppolo300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Aiyuk36910
Elijah Mitchell56350
Jauan Jennings23241
George Kittle12130
Deebo Samuel Sr.14120
Charlie Woerner11110
Trent Sherfield1150
Jeff Wilson1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.4%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.04
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.75