Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
49
Model margin
+2.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.018EPA / play+0.085
- 41.6%Success rate45.5%
- +0.102EPA / dropback+0.174
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.024
- 10.3%Explosive rate10.9%
- +0.82CPOE+1.73
- 36.6%Third-down rate40.6%
- 67.7%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
- 2.13Points / drive2.30
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 8–4 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. SF are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 20/32 | 238 | 2 | 1 |
| Justin Jefferson | 1/1 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Kene Nwangwu | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 4 | 9 | 83 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 6 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 5 | 7 | 62 | 2 |
| Tyler Conklin | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 17/26 | 230 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Mitchell | 27 | 133 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 6 | 66 | 11.0 | 2 |
| Jeff Wilson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 3 | 6 | 91 | 0 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 5 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 3 | 24 | 1 |
| George Kittle | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Charlie Woerner | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.04
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.75