2024 · Week 2

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

17·23

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Darnold

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

SF -4.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapVikings
  • +0.063EPA / play+0.038
  • 46.0%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.142EPA / dropback+0.135
  • -0.059EPA / rush-0.119
  • 10.5%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +1.77CPOE+4.00
  • 43.1%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 2.24Points / drive2.09
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 8–4 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. MIN are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W7SF @ MIN17–22MIN
2021 · W12MIN @ SF26–34SF
2019 · playoffsMIN @ SF10–27SF
2018 · W1SF @ MIN16–24MIN
2015 · W1MIN @ SF3–20SF
2012 · W3SF @ MIN13–24MIN
2009 · W3SF @ MIN24–27MIN
2007 · W14MIN @ SF27–7MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–MIN
SFQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:25946Punt0–0
SFQ1 9:31540Punt0–0
MINQ1 6:55420Field goal0–3
SFQ1 4:451783Turnover on downs0–3
MINQ2 10:27299Touchdown0–10
SFQ2 9:35628Turnover on downs0–10
MINQ2 6:36437Turnover0–10
SFQ2 4:38565Touchdown7–10
MINQ2 1:53649Field goal7–13
MINQ3 15:00310Punt7–13
SFQ3 13:35510Punt7–13
MINQ3 10:19419Punt7–13
SFQ3 7:4120Turnover7–19
MINQ3 6:53110Touchdown7–20
SFQ3 6:49717Turnover7–20
MINQ3 2:28548Turnover7–20
SFQ3 0:081284Touchdown14–20
MINQ4 10:161367Field goal14–23
SFQ4 3:30862Field goal17–23
MINQ4 1:1200End of half17–23

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy28/3631911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Mason201005.01
Brock Purdy2126.00
Isaac Guerendo100.00
Deebo Samuel Sr.2-10-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.8101100
George Kittle78761
Brandon Aiyuk45430
Jauan Jennings24370
Eric Saubert22260
Chris Conley1140
Jordan Mason1140

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold17/2626821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ty Chandler10828.20
Aaron Jones9323.60
Sam Darnold5326.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson471331
Jalen Nailor34541
Aaron Jones56360
Trent Sherfield12170
Brandon Powell22160
Johnny Mundt23120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.62
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.40