Closing spread
SF -4.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play+0.038
- 46.0%Success rate46.3%
- +0.142EPA / dropback+0.135
- -0.059EPA / rush-0.119
- 10.5%Explosive rate9.6%
- +1.77CPOE+4.00
- 43.1%Third-down rate39.7%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 2.24Points / drive2.09
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 8–4 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. MIN are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 28/36 | 319 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Mason | 20 | 100 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Brock Purdy | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Isaac Guerendo | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | -10 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 8 | 10 | 110 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 7 | 8 | 76 | 1 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 17/26 | 268 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Chandler | 10 | 82 | 8.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 4 | 7 | 133 | 1 |
| Jalen Nailor | 3 | 4 | 54 | 1 |
| Aaron Jones | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.62
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.40