Closing spread
SF -7
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
4.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.179EPA / play-0.025
- 51.6%Success rate43.2%
- +0.298EPA / dropback+0.039
- +0.034EPA / rush-0.158
- 13.8%Explosive rate9.4%
- +4.51CPOE+2.80
- 48.1%Third-down rate37.5%
- 70.4%Red-zone TD rate56.4%
- 2.69Points / drive1.84
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 8–4 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. MIN are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 21/30 | 272 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 15 | 45 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Brock Purdy | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 5 | 7 | 78 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 5 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 5 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 3 | 3 | 51 | 1 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Ross Dwelley | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 35/45 | 378 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Addison | 7 | 10 | 123 | 2 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 11 | 12 | 86 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 4 | 5 | 64 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 5 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Ty Chandler | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Trishton Jackson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.06
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+4.74
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.38