2023 · Week 7

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

17·22

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

SF -7

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.4est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

4.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapVikings
  • +0.179EPA / play-0.025
  • 51.6%Success rate43.2%
  • +0.298EPA / dropback+0.039
  • +0.034EPA / rush-0.158
  • 13.8%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +4.51CPOE+2.80
  • 48.1%Third-down rate37.5%
  • 70.4%Red-zone TD rate56.4%
  • 2.69Points / drive1.84
  • 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 8–4 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. MIN are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2SF @ MIN17–23MIN
2021 · W12MIN @ SF26–34SF
2019 · playoffsMIN @ SF10–27SF
2018 · W1SF @ MIN16–24MIN
2015 · W1MIN @ SF3–20SF
2012 · W3SF @ MIN13–24MIN
2009 · W3SF @ MIN24–27MIN
2007 · W14MIN @ SF27–7MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–MIN
MINQ1 15:00319Turnover0–0
SFQ1 13:35535Turnover0–0
MINQ1 10:541089Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 4:48958Missed field goal0–7
MINQ2 14:531487Field goal0–10
SFQ2 7:331280Touchdown7–10
MINQ2 1:01475Touchdown7–16
SFQ2 0:0700End of half7–16
SFQ3 15:006-4Punt7–16
MINQ3 11:451165Field goal7–19
SFQ3 6:59375Touchdown14–19
MINQ3 5:54955Field goal14–22
SFQ3 0:20531Field goal17–22
MINQ4 13:21730Punt17–22
SFQ4 9:14731Turnover17–22
MINQ4 5:301033Missed field goal17–22
SFQ4 1:11420Turnover17–22
MINQ4 0:2500End of half17–22

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy21/3027212

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey15453.01
Brock Purdy5193.80
George Kittle122.00
Elijah Mitchell1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle57780
Brandon Aiyuk56570
Jauan Jennings59540
Christian McCaffrey33511
Ray-Ray McCloud23200
Ross Dwelley11120

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins35/4537821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alexander Mattison8394.90
Cam Akers10313.10
Brandon Powell155.00
Kirk Cousins2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Addison7101232
T.J. Hockenson1112860
Brandon Powell45640
K.J. Osborn56470
Cam Akers23300
Ty Chandler11120
Trishton Jackson1170
Josh Oliver2260
Alexander Mattison2330

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -74.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

4.01%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.5%

Expected total

46.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.06
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.74
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.38