Closing spread
ATL -2
Total
40
Model margin
+1.4est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play-0.094
- 42.4%Success rate38.5%
- +0.116EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.151EPA / rush-0.220
- 9.7%Explosive rate7.2%
- 38.5%Third-down rate35.1%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 1.98Points / drive1.22
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.3%
- +0.053EPA / play allowed+0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. ATL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 21/35 | 256 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Lane | 15 | 55 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 5 | 10 | 62 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 2 | 2 | 60 | 0 |
| Wesley Walls | 3 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Eric Metcalf | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Fred Lane | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 14/21 | 201 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Oxendine | 17 | 64 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Byron Hanspard | 14 | 44 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Dwight | 3 | 4 | 61 | 2 |
| Terance Mathis | 4 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Ken Oxendine | 2 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| Chris Calloway | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| O.J. Santiago | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Hanspard | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.45