2026 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

34·3

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

CAR -2.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.019EPA / play-0.087
  • 41.9%Success rate42.9%
  • +0.072EPA / dropback-0.138
  • -0.084EPA / rush-0.027
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -0.58CPOE-7.31
  • 39.3%Third-down rate35.0%
  • 67.3%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
  • 2.15Points / drive1.72
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. ATL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR
2022 · W8CAR @ ATL34–37ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–ATL
ATLQ1 15:0019Turnover0–0
CARQ1 14:30952Touchdown7–0
ATLQ1 10:48419Turnover7–0
CARQ1 8:5930Punt7–0
ATLQ1 8:3635Punt7–0
CARQ1 7:15610Field goal10–0
ATLQ1 4:29737Turnover on downs10–0
CARQ1 0:4044Punt10–0
ATLQ2 13:05512Punt10–0
CARQ2 9:30873Field goal13–0
ATLQ2 5:541376Field goal13–3
CARQ2 1:07673Touchdown20–3
ATLQ2 0:2024End of half20–3
CARQ3 15:001183Touchdown27–3
ATLQ3 9:38527Turnover27–3
CARQ3 6:57718Turnover on downs27–3
ATLQ3 4:2738Opp touchdown34–3
ATLQ3 2:58619Punt34–3
CARQ4 14:54834Punt34–3
ATLQ4 10:081039Missed field goal34–3
CARQ4 5:453-3Punt34–3
ATLQ4 3:231031Turnover34–3
CARQ4 0:4200End of half34–3

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young23/3628730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard12534.40
Jonathon Brooks5163.20
Bryce Young166.00
AJ Dillon3-3-1.00
Kenny Pickett1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tetairoa McMillan5101010
Jalen Coker89660
Xavier Legette24640
Darren Waller33332
Mitchell Evans11130
Chuba Hubbard22111
Tommy Tremble1240
Jonathon Brooks11-50

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cooper Rush10/178602
Jack Strand8/155901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson16724.50
Brian Robinson11514.60
Cooper Rush22010.00
Jack Strand2168.00
Drake London1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London45510
Austin Hooper24200
Brian Robinson22160
Kyle Pitts13150
Zachariah Branch22140
Jahan Dotson24110
Bijan Robinson3490
Chris Blair1360
Olamide Zaccheaus1330
Charlie Woerner0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.3%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.65
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.57