Closing spread
CAR -2.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+6.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.130EPA / play-0.358
- 47.1%Success rate36.7%
- +0.242EPA / dropback-0.638
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.113
- 11.8%Explosive rate10.0%
- +4.17CPOE-10.42
- 44.4%Third-down rate16.7%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 2.90Points / drive0.46
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. ATL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.7%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.11
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.33