2023 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

10·24

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Desmond Ridder

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed

Closing spread

ATL -3.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapFalcons
  • -0.160EPA / play-0.089
  • 38.2%Success rate41.5%
  • -0.163EPA / dropback-0.026
  • -0.155EPA / rush-0.171
  • 6.3%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -1.80CPOE-3.52
  • 34.8%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 42.3%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
  • 1.00Points / drive1.58
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. ATL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR
2022 · W8CAR @ ATL34–37ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–ATL
ATLQ1 15:003-6Punt0–0
CARQ1 13:021148Turnover on downs0–0
ATLQ1 6:08536Punt0–0
CARQ1 2:4735Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 1:01317Touchdown0–7
CARQ2 14:5437Punt0–7
ATLQ2 14:0149Punt0–7
CARQ2 12:271275Touchdown7–7
ATLQ2 5:09520Punt7–7
CARQ2 1:4830Punt7–7
ATLQ2 1:244-2End of half7–7
CARQ3 15:00850Field goal10–7
ATLQ3 10:4637Punt10–7
CARQ3 9:34519Turnover10–7
ATLQ3 6:3835Field goal10–10
CARQ3 4:52632Turnover10–10
ATLQ3 2:24761Touchdown10–17
CARQ4 14:1269Punt10–17
ATLQ4 10:57415Punt10–17
CARQ4 8:1632Punt10–17
ATLQ4 7:09656Touchdown10–24
CARQ4 4:483-12Punt10–24
ATLQ4 3:4734Punt10–24
CARQ4 2:391446Turnover on downs10–24
ATLQ4 0:1400End of half10–24

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young20/3814612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders18724.00
Chuba Hubbard9606.70
Bryce Young3175.70
Laviska Shenault Jr.252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hayden Hurst57411
Miles Sanders46260
Terrace Marshall Jr.26230
Jonathan Mingo25170
Laviska Shenault Jr.22160
Adam Thielen22120
Chuba Hubbard2290
Giovanni Ricci1120

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Desmond Ridder15/1811510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyler Allgeier15755.02
Bijan Robinson10565.60
Desmond Ridder1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Pitts23440
Mack Hollins34310
Bijan Robinson66271
Tyler Allgeier33190
Drake London0100
Desmond Ridder11-60

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.5%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.21
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.91