Closing spread
ATL -3.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.160EPA / play-0.089
- 38.2%Success rate41.5%
- -0.163EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.155EPA / rush-0.171
- 6.3%Explosive rate8.7%
- -1.80CPOE-3.52
- 34.8%Third-down rate40.2%
- 42.3%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
- 1.00Points / drive1.58
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. ATL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 20/38 | 146 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 18 | 72 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 9 | 60 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayden Hurst | 5 | 7 | 41 | 1 |
| Miles Sanders | 4 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 2 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Giovanni Ricci | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 15/18 | 115 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier | 15 | 75 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Bijan Robinson | 10 | 56 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Desmond Ridder | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 2 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 6 | 6 | 27 | 1 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Drake London | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Desmond Ridder | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.21
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.91