2024 · Week 18 · Division

Final / OT

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

44·38

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Penix Jr.

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -7.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+5.5est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapFalcons
  • -0.040EPA / play+0.041
  • 41.8%Success rate48.4%
  • -0.041EPA / dropback+0.083
  • -0.040EPA / rush-0.015
  • 7.5%Explosive rate9.7%
  • +0.06CPOE-0.01
  • 36.3%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 63.0%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
  • 1.88Points / drive2.10
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. ATL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR
2022 · W8CAR @ ATL34–37ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–ATL
ATLQ1 15:001158Field goal0–3
CARQ1 11:08753Field goal3–3
ATLQ1 7:031127Turnover on downs3–3
CARQ1 1:031158Touchdown10–3
ATLQ2 10:471070Touchdown10–10
CARQ2 5:27575Touchdown17–10
ATLQ2 2:48670Touchdown17–17
CARQ2 1:3441Punt17–17
ATLQ2 0:40681Touchdown17–24
CARQ2 0:0300End of half17–24
CARQ3 15:0035Punt17–24
ATLQ3 13:28315Turnover17–24
CARQ3 12:04421Touchdown24–24
ATLQ3 10:43734Missed field goal24–24
CARQ3 6:13958Touchdown31–24
ATLQ3 1:021399Touchdown31–31
CARQ4 9:501085Touchdown38–31
ATLQ4 4:011170Touchdown38–38
CARQ4 0:4630Punt38–38
ATLQ4 0:17113End of half38–38
CAROT1070Touchdown44–38

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young25/3425130
Jalen Coker1/11900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders17663.91
Raheem Blackshear44711.80
Bryce Young5244.82
Mike Boone4184.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jalen Coker77620
Miles Sanders34501
Adam Thielen56440
Ja'Tavion Sanders35350
Tommy Tremble23301
Xavier Legette35300
Feleipe Franks11120
David Moore1391
Mike Boone11-20

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Michael Penix Jr.21/3831221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson281706.12
Tyler Allgeier9525.80
Michael Penix Jr.155.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London10181872
Ray-Ray McCloud47660
KhaDarel Hodge12240
Tyler Allgeier22170
Kyle Pitts23150
Bijan Robinson2530

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.5%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.88
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.86
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.45