Closing spread
ATL -7.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play+0.041
- 41.8%Success rate48.4%
- -0.041EPA / dropback+0.083
- -0.040EPA / rush-0.015
- 7.5%Explosive rate9.7%
- +0.06CPOE-0.01
- 36.3%Third-down rate39.1%
- 63.0%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 1.88Points / drive2.10
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. ATL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 25/34 | 251 | 3 | 0 |
| Jalen Coker | 1/1 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 17 | 66 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 4 | 47 | 11.8 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Mike Boone | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Coker | 7 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 4 | 50 | 1 |
| Adam Thielen | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 2 | 3 | 30 | 1 |
| Xavier Legette | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Feleipe Franks | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | 21/38 | 312 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 28 | 170 | 6.1 | 2 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 9 | 52 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 10 | 18 | 187 | 2 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 4 | 7 | 66 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.5%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.88
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.86
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.45