2025 · Week 11 · Division

Final / OT

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

30·27

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Penix

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -4.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapFalcons
  • -0.025EPA / play-0.008
  • 43.7%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.007EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.072EPA / rush-0.073
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +1.44CPOE-3.36
  • 35.7%Third-down rate33.5%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
  • 1.80Points / drive1.82
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. ATL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR
2022 · W8CAR @ ATL34–37ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–ATL
ATLQ1 15:0046Punt0–0
CARQ1 12:551368Touchdown7–0
ATLQ1 5:25475Touchdown7–7
CARQ1 3:33411Punt7–7
ATLQ1 0:5915100Touchdown7–14
CARQ2 7:5244Punt7–14
ATLQ2 5:24958Touchdown7–21
CARQ2 1:41658Field goal10–21
ATLQ2 0:25218End of half10–21
CARQ3 15:00568Touchdown16–21
ATLQ3 12:0400Turnover on downs16–21
CARQ3 12:01733Turnover on downs16–21
ATLQ3 8:09722Punt16–21
CARQ3 5:12963Field goal19–21
ATLQ3 0:58619Punt19–21
CARQ4 12:13425Punt19–21
ATLQ4 10:14713Punt19–21
CARQ4 7:541132Turnover on downs19–21
ATLQ4 3:0235Field goal19–24
CARQ4 2:43965Touchdown27–24
ATLQ4 1:08528Field goal27–27
CARQ4 0:1600End of half27–27
ATLOT44Punt27–27
CAROT560Field goal30–27

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young31/4544830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rico Dowdle19452.40
Chuba Hubbard4215.30
Trevor Etienne122.00
Bryce Young1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tetairoa McMillan8121302
Xavier Legette48831
Rico Dowdle57550
Tommy Tremble12540
Jalen Coker44520
Mitchell Evans22280
Ja'Tavion Sanders44220
Brycen Tremayne22170
Chuba Hubbard1370

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Michael Penix Jr.13/1617500
Kirk Cousins6/144800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson231044.52
Tyler Allgeier3103.31
Michael Penix Jr.199.00
Kirk Cousins122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London791190
Bijan Robinson45390
Darnell Mooney37340
Kyle Pitts23140
David Sills12110
Tyler Allgeier2260
KhaDarel Hodge0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.3%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.76
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.47