Closing spread
ATL -4.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play-0.008
- 43.7%Success rate44.5%
- +0.007EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.073
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.2%
- +1.44CPOE-3.36
- 35.7%Third-down rate33.5%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 1.80Points / drive1.82
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. ATL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 31/45 | 448 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 19 | 45 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Trevor Etienne | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | 8 | 12 | 130 | 2 |
| Xavier Legette | 4 | 8 | 83 | 1 |
| Rico Dowdle | 5 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 2 | 54 | 0 |
| Jalen Coker | 4 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Mitchell Evans | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Brycen Tremayne | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | 13/16 | 175 | 0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 6/14 | 48 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 23 | 104 | 4.5 | 2 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 7 | 9 | 119 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 3 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| David Sills | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.76
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.47