Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
32
Model margin
-0.5est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.160
- 41.5%Success rate38.2%
- -0.026EPA / dropback-0.163
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.155
- 8.7%Explosive rate6.3%
- -3.52CPOE-1.80
- 40.2%Third-down rate34.8%
- 53.3%Red-zone TD rate42.3%
- 1.58Points / drive1.00
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. CAR are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 12/20 | 152 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier | 14 | 45 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 5 | -2 | -0.4 | 0 |
| Desmond Ridder | 5 | -2 | -0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 2 | 61 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Drake London | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Tucker Fisk | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Van Jefferson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 18/24 | 167 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 22 | 87 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 6 | 2 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 4 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Stephen Sullivan | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.7%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.21
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.50