2023 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Desmond Ridder

7·9

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

ATL -3

Total

32

Model margin

-0.5est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.089EPA / play-0.160
  • 41.5%Success rate38.2%
  • -0.026EPA / dropback-0.163
  • -0.171EPA / rush-0.155
  • 8.7%Explosive rate6.3%
  • -3.52CPOE-1.80
  • 40.2%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 53.3%Red-zone TD rate42.3%
  • 1.58Points / drive1.00
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. CAR are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR
2022 · W8CAR @ ATL34–37ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–CAR
ATLQ1 15:001042Turnover on downs0–0
CARQ1 9:21531Turnover on downs0–0
ATLQ1 6:433-1Punt0–0
CARQ1 5:1436Punt0–0
ATLQ1 4:17614Punt0–0
CARQ1 1:013-3Punt0–0
ATLQ2 15:0034Punt0–0
CARQ2 12:5434Punt0–0
ATLQ2 10:24516Punt0–0
CARQ2 8:2639Punt0–0
ATLQ2 6:06363Touchdown7–0
CARQ2 4:491165Field goal7–3
ATLQ2 0:2200End of half7–3
CARQ3 15:00530Turnover on downs7–3
ATLQ3 12:11630Punt7–3
CARQ3 8:551139Punt7–3
ATLQ3 2:1031Turnover7–3
CARQ3 1:26517Field goal7–6
ATLQ4 13:321236Turnover7–6
CARQ4 7:351488Field goal7–9

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Desmond Ridder12/2015211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyler Allgeier14453.20
Bijan Robinson7111.60
Cordarrelle Patterson5-2-0.40
Desmond Ridder5-2-0.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jonnu Smith22610
Kyle Pitts34370
Drake London23240
KhaDarel Hodge11100
Tucker Fisk1190
Tyler Allgeier1160
Bijan Robinson1330
Cordarrelle Patterson1321
Van Jefferson0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young18/2416700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard22874.00
Ihmir Smith-Marsette4317.80
Bryce Young492.30
Miles Sanders620.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen47430
Tommy Tremble22320
Jonathan Mingo45320
DJ Chark12180
Chuba Hubbard22160
Stephen Sullivan11140
Miles Sanders22110
Ihmir Smith-Marsette2210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.7%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.21
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.50