2024 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Kirk Cousins

38·20

Panthers

Carolina

QB Andy Dalton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

ATL -6

Total

45.5

Model margin

-1.7est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.041EPA / play-0.040
  • 48.4%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.083EPA / dropback-0.041
  • -0.015EPA / rush-0.040
  • 9.7%Explosive rate7.5%
  • -0.01CPOE+0.06
  • 39.1%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 56.8%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
  • 2.10Points / drive1.88
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. CAR are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR
2022 · W8CAR @ ATL34–37ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–CAR
CARQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
ATLQ1 13:1436Punt0–0
CARQ1 12:291372Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 5:561356Touchdown7–7
CARQ1 0:3835Punt7–7
ATLQ2 14:05626Turnover7–7
CARQ2 12:09736Field goal7–10
ATLQ2 8:48576Touchdown15–10
CARQ2 6:035-3Punt15–10
ATLQ2 2:59527Touchdown22–10
CARQ2 1:42980Touchdown22–17
ATLQ2 0:0700End of half22–17
ATLQ3 15:001067Field goal25–17
CARQ3 10:041058Field goal25–20
ATLQ3 4:51967Field goal28–20
CARQ3 0:07856Turnover28–20
ATLQ4 10:47984Touchdown35–20
CARQ4 5:38516Turnover on downs35–20
ATLQ4 4:09519Field goal38–20
CARQ4 2:11313Turnover38–20
ATLQ4 1:4500End of half38–20

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins19/3022510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyler Allgeier181055.81
Bijan Robinson15956.32
Ray-Ray McCloud133.00
Kirk Cousins4-5-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London610741
Kyle Pitts35700
Darnell Mooney35380
Ray-Ray McCloud34300
Bijan Robinson34100
Tyler Allgeier1130

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton26/3822122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard18925.10
Andy Dalton3217.00
Miles Sanders310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Diontae Johnson610781
Ja'Tavion Sanders57490
Jalen Coker33300
Xavier Legette34231
David Moore22170
Miles Sanders11120
Chuba Hubbard56110
Jonathan Mingo1110
Ian Thomas0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.9%4.6%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

3.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.6%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.88
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.27
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-1.68