Closing spread
ATL -6
Total
45.5
Model margin
-1.7est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play-0.040
- 48.4%Success rate41.8%
- +0.083EPA / dropback-0.041
- -0.015EPA / rush-0.040
- 9.7%Explosive rate7.5%
- -0.01CPOE+0.06
- 39.1%Third-down rate36.3%
- 56.8%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
- 2.10Points / drive1.88
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. CAR are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 19/30 | 225 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier | 18 | 105 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Bijan Robinson | 15 | 95 | 6.3 | 2 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 4 | -5 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 6 | 10 | 74 | 1 |
| Kyle Pitts | 3 | 5 | 70 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 26/38 | 221 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 18 | 92 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 6 | 10 | 78 | 1 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 5 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Jalen Coker | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Xavier Legette | 3 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| David Moore | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 5 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.6%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.88
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.27
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-1.68